dorsal/arxiv
View SchemaA Comparative Analysis of Influenza Vaccination Programs
| Authors | Shweta Bansal, Babak Pourbohloul, Lauren Ancel Meyers |
|---|---|
| Categories | |
| ArXiv ID | q-bio/0601035 |
| URL | https://arxiv.org/abs/q-bio/0601035 |
| Journal | PLoS Medicine, Vol 3 (10), 2006 |
Abstract
The threat of avian influenza and the 2004-2005 influenza vaccine supply shortage in the United States has sparked a debate about optimal vaccination strategies to reduce the burden of morbidity and mortality caused by the influenza virus. We present a comparative analysis of two classes of suggested vaccination strategies: mortality-based strategies that target high risk populations and morbidity-based that target high prevalence populations. Applying the methods of contact network epidemiology to a model of disease transmission in a large urban population, we evaluate the efficacy of these strategies across a wide range of viral transmission rates and for two different age-specific mortality distributions. We find that the optimal strategy depends critically on the viral transmission level (reproductive rate) of the virus: morbidity-based strategies outperform mortality-based strategies for moderately transmissible strains, while the reverse is true for highly transmissible strains. These results hold for a range of mortality rates reported for prior influenza epidemics and pandemics. Furthermore, we show that vaccination delays and multiple introductions of disease into the community have a more detrimental impact on morbidity-based strategies than mortality-based strategies. If public health officials have reasonable estimates of the viral transmission rate and the frequency of new introductions into the community prior to an outbreak, then these methods can guide the design of optimal vaccination priorities. When such information is unreliable or not available, as is often the case, this study recommends mortality-based vaccination priorities.
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"abstract": "The threat of avian influenza and the 2004-2005 influenza vaccine supply\nshortage in the United States has sparked a debate about optimal vaccination\nstrategies to reduce the burden of morbidity and mortality caused by the\ninfluenza virus. We present a comparative analysis of two classes of suggested\nvaccination strategies: mortality-based strategies that target high risk\npopulations and morbidity-based that target high prevalence populations.\nApplying the methods of contact network epidemiology to a model of disease\ntransmission in a large urban population, we evaluate the efficacy of these\nstrategies across a wide range of viral transmission rates and for two\ndifferent age-specific mortality distributions. We find that the optimal\nstrategy depends critically on the viral transmission level (reproductive rate)\nof the virus: morbidity-based strategies outperform mortality-based strategies\nfor moderately transmissible strains, while the reverse is true for highly\ntransmissible strains. These results hold for a range of mortality rates\nreported for prior influenza epidemics and pandemics. Furthermore, we show that\nvaccination delays and multiple introductions of disease into the community\nhave a more detrimental impact on morbidity-based strategies than\nmortality-based strategies. If public health officials have reasonable\nestimates of the viral transmission rate and the frequency of new introductions\ninto the community prior to an outbreak, then these methods can guide the\ndesign of optimal vaccination priorities. When such information is unreliable\nor not available, as is often the case, this study recommends mortality-based\nvaccination priorities.",
"arxiv_id": "q-bio/0601035",
"authors": [
"Shweta Bansal",
"Babak Pourbohloul",
"Lauren Ancel Meyers"
],
"categories": [
"q-bio.PE",
"q-bio.QM"
],
"journal_ref": "PLoS Medicine, Vol 3 (10), 2006",
"title": "A Comparative Analysis of Influenza Vaccination Programs",
"url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/q-bio/0601035"
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