dorsal/arxiv
View SchemaForecasting characteristic earthquakes in a minimalist model
| Authors | Miguel Vazquez-Prada, Alvaro Gonzalez, Javier B. Gomez, Amalio F. Pacheco |
|---|---|
| Categories | |
| ArXiv ID | physics/0305055 |
| URL | https://arxiv.org/abs/physics/0305055 |
| DOI | 10.5194/npg-10-565-2003 |
Abstract
Using error diagrams, we quantify the forecasting of characteristic-earthquake occurrence in a recently introduced minimalist model. Initially we connect the earthquake alarm at a fixed time after the ocurrence of a characteristic event. The evaluation of this strategy leads to a one-dimensional numerical exploration of the loss function. This first strategy is then refined by considering a classification of the seismic cycles of the model according to the presence, or not, of some factors related to the seismicity observed in the cycle. These factors, statistically speaking, enlarge or shorten the length of the cycles. The independent evaluation of the impact of these factors in the forecast process leads to two-dimensional numerical explorations. Finally, and as a third gradual step in the process of refinement, we combine these factors leading to a three-dimensional exploration. The final improvement in the loss function is about 8.5%.
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"abstract": "Using error diagrams, we quantify the forecasting of\ncharacteristic-earthquake occurrence in a recently introduced minimalist model.\nInitially we connect the earthquake alarm at a fixed time after the ocurrence\nof a characteristic event. The evaluation of this strategy leads to a\none-dimensional numerical exploration of the loss function. This first strategy\nis then refined by considering a classification of the seismic cycles of the\nmodel according to the presence, or not, of some factors related to the\nseismicity observed in the cycle. These factors, statistically speaking,\nenlarge or shorten the length of the cycles. The independent evaluation of the\nimpact of these factors in the forecast process leads to two-dimensional\nnumerical explorations. Finally, and as a third gradual step in the process of\nrefinement, we combine these factors leading to a three-dimensional\nexploration. The final improvement in the loss function is about 8.5%.",
"arxiv_id": "physics/0305055",
"authors": [
"Miguel Vazquez-Prada",
"Alvaro Gonzalez",
"Javier B. Gomez",
"Amalio F. Pacheco"
],
"categories": [
"physics.geo-ph",
"physics.comp-ph"
],
"doi": "10.5194/npg-10-565-2003",
"title": "Forecasting characteristic earthquakes in a minimalist model",
"url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/physics/0305055"
},
"schema_id": "dorsal/arxiv",
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