{
  "annotation_id": "f4191480-9df8-426a-ad44-cfbbb2d7f769",
  "date_created": "2026-03-02T18:00:53.692000Z",
  "date_modified": "2026-03-02T18:00:53.692000Z",
  "file_hash": "8f01d3e9346006f37e5374bf02d1ae2b5655f797c05abecb9ce6346cbeff2a5c",
  "private": false,
  "record": {
    "abstract": "We examine the results linking cosmic ray flux (CRF) variations to global\nclimate change. We then proceed to study various periods over which there are\nestimates for the radiative forcing, temperature change and CRF variations\nrelative to today. These include the Phanerozoic as a whole, the Cretaceous,\nthe Eocene, the Last Glacial Maximum, the 20th century, as well as the 11-yr\nsolar cycle. This enables us to place quantitative limits on climate\nsensitivity to both changes in the CRF, Phi_CR, and the radiative budget, F,\nunder equilibrium. Under the assumption that the CRF is indeed a climate\ndriver, we find that the sensitivity to CRF variations is consistently fitted\nwith mu := -Phi_0 (dT_global/ d Phi_CR) = 6.5 +/- 2.5 K (where Phi_0 is the CR\nenergy flux today). Additionally, the sensitivity to radiative forcing changes\nis lambda := dT_global/ dF_0 = 0.35 +/- 0.09 K/(W/m^2), at the current\ntemperature, while its temperature derivative is negligible with d lambda /\ndT_0 = 0.01 +/- 0.03 1/(W/m^2). If the observed CRF/climate link is ignored,\nthe best sensitivity obtained is lambda = 0.54 +/- 0.12 K/(W/m^2) and d lambda\n/ dT_0 = -0.02 +/- 0.05 1/(W/m^2). The CRF/climate link therefore implies that\nthe increased solar luminosity and reduced CRF over the previous century should\nhave contributed a warming of 0.37+/-0.13 K, while the rest should be mainly\nattributed to anthropogenic causes. Without any effect of cosmic rays, the\nincrease in solar luminosity would correspond to an increased temperature of\n0.16+/-0.04 K.",
    "arxiv_id": "physics/0409123",
    "authors": [
      "Nir J. Shaviv"
    ],
    "categories": [
      "physics.ao-ph",
      "physics.space-ph"
    ],
    "doi": "10.1029/2004JA010866",
    "title": "On climate response to changes in the cosmic ray flux and radiative   budget",
    "url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/physics/0409123"
  },
  "schema_id": "dorsal/arxiv",
  "source": {
    "execution_id": "8b2e4c64-3a08-47e3-a89a-09a4742371ab",
    "id": "arXiv Dataset IDs",
    "type": "Model",
    "variant": "snapshot-2026-03-01",
    "version": "0.1.0"
  },
  "user_id": 1000002
}