{
  "annotation_id": "f3a2452c-e24c-46ec-bfc9-5ac772959e4f",
  "date_created": "2026-03-02T18:01:17.632000Z",
  "date_modified": "2026-03-02T18:01:17.632000Z",
  "file_hash": "dae841439dd8bd9432f7241c26db182cc0164be85e487813ccaa58aa0fa130b5",
  "private": false,
  "record": {
    "abstract": "One possible method for predicting landfalling hurricane numbers is to first\npredict the number of hurricanes in the basin and then convert that prediction\nto a prediction of landfalling hurricane numbers using an estimated proportion.\nShould this work better than just predicting landfalling hurricane numbers\ndirectly? We perform a basic statistical analysis of this question in the\ncontext of a simple abstract model, and convert some previous predictions of\nbasin numbers into landfalling numbers.",
    "arxiv_id": "physics/0701166",
    "authors": [
      "Stephen Jewson",
      "Thomas Laepple",
      "Adam O\u0027Shay",
      "Jeremy Penzer",
      "Enrica Bellone",
      "Kechi Nzerem"
    ],
    "categories": [
      "physics.ao-ph"
    ],
    "title": "Predicting landfalling hurricane numbers from basin hurricane numbers:   statistical analysis and predictions",
    "url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/physics/0701166"
  },
  "schema_id": "dorsal/arxiv",
  "source": {
    "execution_id": "41935b35-c460-49c3-ba3f-3ec3239c48c5",
    "id": "arXiv Dataset IDs",
    "type": "Model",
    "variant": "snapshot-2026-03-01",
    "version": "0.1.0"
  },
  "user_id": 1000002
}