dorsal/arxiv
View SchemaDynamics of the Markov Time Scale of Seismic Activity May Provide a Short-Term Alert for Earthquakes
| Authors | M. Reza Rahimi Tabar, Muhammad Sahimi, K. Kaviani, M. Allamehzadeh, J. Peinke, M. Mokhtari, M. Vesaghi, M. D. Niry, F. Ghasemi, A. Bahraminasab, S. Tabatabai, F. Fayazbakhsh |
|---|---|
| Categories | |
| ArXiv ID | physics/0510043 |
| URL | https://arxiv.org/abs/physics/0510043 |
Abstract
We propose a novel method for analyzing precursory seismic data before an earthquake that treats them as a Markov process and distinguishes the background noise from real fluctuations due to an earthquake. A short time (on the order of several hours) before an earthquake the Markov time scale $t_M$ increases sharply, hence providing an alarm for an impending earthquake. To distinguish a false alarm from a reliable one, we compute a second quantity, $T_1$, based on the concept of extended self-similarity of the data. $T_1$ also changes strongly before an earthquake occurs. An alarm is accepted if {\it both} $t_M$ and $T_1$ indicate it {\it simultaneously}. Calibrating the method with the data for one region provides a tool for predicting an impending earthquake within that region. Our analysis of the data for a large number of earthquakes indicate an essentially zero rate of failure for the method.
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"abstract": "We propose a novel method for analyzing precursory seismic data before an\nearthquake that treats them as a Markov process and distinguishes the\nbackground noise from real fluctuations due to an earthquake. A short time (on\nthe order of several hours) before an earthquake the Markov time scale $t_M$\nincreases sharply, hence providing an alarm for an impending earthquake. To\ndistinguish a false alarm from a reliable one, we compute a second quantity,\n$T_1$, based on the concept of extended self-similarity of the data. $T_1$ also\nchanges strongly before an earthquake occurs. An alarm is accepted if {\\it\nboth} $t_M$ and $T_1$ indicate it {\\it simultaneously}. Calibrating the method\nwith the data for one region provides a tool for predicting an impending\nearthquake within that region. Our analysis of the data for a large number of\nearthquakes indicate an essentially zero rate of failure for the method.",
"arxiv_id": "physics/0510043",
"authors": [
"M. Reza Rahimi Tabar",
"Muhammad Sahimi",
"K. Kaviani",
"M. Allamehzadeh",
"J. Peinke",
"M. Mokhtari",
"M. Vesaghi",
"M. D. Niry",
"F. Ghasemi",
"A. Bahraminasab",
"S. Tabatabai",
"F. Fayazbakhsh"
],
"categories": [
"physics.geo-ph",
"nlin.AO",
"physics.data-an"
],
"title": "Dynamics of the Markov Time Scale of Seismic Activity May Provide a Short-Term Alert for Earthquakes",
"url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/physics/0510043"
},
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