dorsal/arxiv
View SchemaOn the Nature of the El Nino/La Nina Events
| Authors | David H. Douglass, Drew R. Abrams, David M. Baranson, B. David Clader |
|---|---|
| Categories | |
| ArXiv ID | physics/0203016 |
| URL | https://arxiv.org/abs/physics/0203016 |
Abstract
We propose a scenario that explains many of the Pacific Ocean climate phenomena that are called El Nino/ La Nina. This scenario requires an event, which we call a Super-Nino Event. It dominates other phenomena when it occurs. A template of this event has been constructed giving the time evolution, which is an alternating sequence of 'El Ninos' and 'La Ninas'. The duration of the event is about 15 years unless some other event intervenes. Three such events can explain most of the El Nino/La Nina features that have been observed since 1968. We find that the various El Nino/La Nina features that have been observed fall into types, associated with the oscillation in the template, which can be classified by a "Periodic Table". The Earth is presently experiencing one of these events which started in the mid 1990's and will continue for another 4-5 years. This extrapolation into the future suggests that a minor El Nino will begin in mid 2001 and will reach a maximum about a year later. The conditions under which such a Super Nino-Event may occur are discussed.
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"abstract": "We propose a scenario that explains many of the Pacific Ocean climate\nphenomena that are called El Nino/ La Nina. This scenario requires an event,\nwhich we call a Super-Nino Event. It dominates other phenomena when it occurs.\nA template of this event has been constructed giving the time evolution, which\nis an alternating sequence of \u0027El Ninos\u0027 and \u0027La Ninas\u0027. The duration of the\nevent is about 15 years unless some other event intervenes. Three such events\ncan explain most of the El Nino/La Nina features that have been observed since\n1968. We find that the various El Nino/La Nina features that have been observed\nfall into types, associated with the oscillation in the template, which can be\nclassified by a \"Periodic Table\". The Earth is presently experiencing one of\nthese events which started in the mid 1990\u0027s and will continue for another 4-5\nyears. This extrapolation into the future suggests that a minor El Nino will\nbegin in mid 2001 and will reach a maximum about a year later. The conditions\nunder which such a Super Nino-Event may occur are discussed.",
"arxiv_id": "physics/0203016",
"authors": [
"David H. Douglass",
"Drew R. Abrams",
"David M. Baranson",
"B. David Clader"
],
"categories": [
"physics.ao-ph",
"physics.geo-ph"
],
"title": "On the Nature of the El Nino/La Nina Events",
"url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/physics/0203016"
},
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