dorsal/arxiv
View SchemaTowards a definition of climate science
| Authors | Valerio Lucarini |
|---|---|
| Categories | |
| ArXiv ID | physics/0408038 |
| URL | https://arxiv.org/abs/physics/0408038 |
| Journal | published on IJEP Vol. 18, No. 5, 413-422 (2002) |
Abstract
The intrinsic difficulties in building realistic climate models and in providing complete, reliable and meaningful observational datasets, and the conceptual impossibility of testing theories against data imply that the usual Galilean scientific validation criteria do not apply to climate science. The different epistemology pertaining to climate science implies that its answers cannot be singular and deterministic; they must be plural and stated in probabilistic terms. Therefore, in order to extract meaningful estimates of future climate change from a model, it is necessary to explore the model' uncertainties. In terms of societal impacts of scientific knowledge, it is necessary to accept that any political choice in a matter involving complex systems is made under unavoidable conditions of uncertainty. Nevertheless, detailed probabilistic results in science can provide a baseline for a sensible process of decision making.
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"abstract": "The intrinsic difficulties in building realistic climate models and in\nproviding complete, reliable and meaningful observational datasets, and the\nconceptual impossibility of testing theories against data imply that the usual\nGalilean scientific validation criteria do not apply to climate science. The\ndifferent epistemology pertaining to climate science implies that its answers\ncannot be singular and deterministic; they must be plural and stated in\nprobabilistic terms. Therefore, in order to extract meaningful estimates of\nfuture climate change from a model, it is necessary to explore the model\u0027\nuncertainties. In terms of societal impacts of scientific knowledge, it is\nnecessary to accept that any political choice in a matter involving complex\nsystems is made under unavoidable conditions of uncertainty. Nevertheless,\ndetailed probabilistic results in science can provide a baseline for a sensible\nprocess of decision making.",
"arxiv_id": "physics/0408038",
"authors": [
"Valerio Lucarini"
],
"categories": [
"physics.ao-ph",
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"physics.soc-ph"
],
"journal_ref": "published on IJEP Vol. 18, No. 5, 413-422 (2002)",
"title": "Towards a definition of climate science",
"url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/physics/0408038"
},
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