dorsal/arxiv
View SchemaImpact of non-Poisson activity patterns on spreading processes
| Authors | Alexei Vazquez, Racz Balazs, Lukacs Andras, Albert-Laszlo Barabasi |
|---|---|
| Categories | |
| ArXiv ID | physics/0609184 |
| URL | https://arxiv.org/abs/physics/0609184 |
| DOI | 10.1103/PhysRevLett.98.158702 |
| Journal | Phys. Rev. Lett. 98, 158702 (2007) |
Abstract
Halting a computer or biological virus outbreak requires a detailed understanding of the timing of the interactions between susceptible and infected individuals. While current spreading models assume that users interact uniformly in time, following a Poisson process, a series of recent measurements indicate that the inter-contact time distribution is heavy tailed, corresponding to a temporally inhomogeneous bursty contact process. Here we show that the non-Poisson nature of the contact dynamics results in prevalence decay times significantly larger than predicted by the standard Poisson process based models. Our predictions are in agreement with the detailed time resolved prevalence data of computer viruses, which, according to virus bulletins, show a decay time close to a year, in contrast with the one day decay predicted by the standard Poisson process based models.
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"abstract": "Halting a computer or biological virus outbreak requires a detailed\nunderstanding of the timing of the interactions between susceptible and\ninfected individuals. While current spreading models assume that users interact\nuniformly in time, following a Poisson process, a series of recent measurements\nindicate that the inter-contact time distribution is heavy tailed,\ncorresponding to a temporally inhomogeneous bursty contact process. Here we\nshow that the non-Poisson nature of the contact dynamics results in prevalence\ndecay times significantly larger than predicted by the standard Poisson process\nbased models. Our predictions are in agreement with the detailed time resolved\nprevalence data of computer viruses, which, according to virus bulletins, show\na decay time close to a year, in contrast with the one day decay predicted by\nthe standard Poisson process based models.",
"arxiv_id": "physics/0609184",
"authors": [
"Alexei Vazquez",
"Racz Balazs",
"Lukacs Andras",
"Albert-Laszlo Barabasi"
],
"categories": [
"physics.data-an",
"cond-mat.stat-mech",
"physics.bio-ph",
"q-bio.PE"
],
"doi": "10.1103/PhysRevLett.98.158702",
"journal_ref": "Phys. Rev. Lett. 98, 158702 (2007)",
"title": "Impact of non-Poisson activity patterns on spreading processes",
"url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/physics/0609184"
},
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