dorsal/arxiv
View SchemaForeshocks Explained by Cascades of Triggered Seismicity
| Authors | Agnes Helmstetter, Didier Sornette |
|---|---|
| Categories | |
| ArXiv ID | physics/0210130 |
| URL | https://arxiv.org/abs/physics/0210130 |
| DOI | 10.1029/2003JB002409 |
| Journal | J. Geophys. Res. (Solid Earth) 108 (B10), 2457 10.1029/2003JB002409 01 (2003) |
Abstract
The observation of foreshocks preceding large earthquakes and the suggestion that foreshocks have specific properties that may be used to distinguish them from other earthquakes have raised the hope that large earthquakes may be predictable. Among proposed anomalous properties are the larger proportion than normal of large versus small foreshocks, the power law acceleration of seismicity rate as a function of time to the mainshock and the spatial migration of foreshocks toward the mainshock, when averaging over many sequences. Using Southern California seismicity, we show that these properties and others arise naturally from the simple model that any earthquake may trigger other earthquakes, without arbitrary distinction between foreshocks, aftershocks and mainshocks. We find that foreshocks precursory properties are independent of the mainshock size. This implies that earthquakes (large or small) are predictable to the same degree as seismicity rate is predictable from past seismicity by taking into account cascades of triggering. The cascades of triggering give rise naturally to long-range and long-time interactions, which can explain the observations of correlations in seismicity over surprisingly large length scales.
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"abstract": "The observation of foreshocks preceding large earthquakes and the suggestion\nthat foreshocks have specific properties that may be used to distinguish them\nfrom other earthquakes have raised the hope that large earthquakes may be\npredictable. Among proposed anomalous properties are the larger proportion than\nnormal of large versus small foreshocks, the power law acceleration of\nseismicity rate as a function of time to the mainshock and the spatial\nmigration of foreshocks toward the mainshock, when averaging over many\nsequences. Using Southern California seismicity, we show that these properties\nand others arise naturally from the simple model that any earthquake may\ntrigger other earthquakes, without arbitrary distinction between foreshocks,\naftershocks and mainshocks. We find that foreshocks precursory properties are\nindependent of the mainshock size. This implies that earthquakes (large or\nsmall) are predictable to the same degree as seismicity rate is predictable\nfrom past seismicity by taking into account cascades of triggering. The\ncascades of triggering give rise naturally to long-range and long-time\ninteractions, which can explain the observations of correlations in seismicity\nover surprisingly large length scales.",
"arxiv_id": "physics/0210130",
"authors": [
"Agnes Helmstetter",
"Didier Sornette"
],
"categories": [
"physics.geo-ph",
"cond-mat.stat-mech"
],
"doi": "10.1029/2003JB002409",
"journal_ref": "J. Geophys. Res. (Solid Earth) 108 (B10), 2457\n 10.1029/2003JB002409 01 (2003)",
"title": "Foreshocks Explained by Cascades of Triggered Seismicity",
"url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/physics/0210130"
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