dorsal/arxiv
View SchemaA Cognitive Model of an Epistemic Community: Mapping the Dynamics of Shallow Lake Ecosystems
| Authors | Can O. Tan, Uygar Ozesmi |
|---|---|
| Categories | |
| ArXiv ID | q-bio/0509022 |
| URL | https://arxiv.org/abs/q-bio/0509022 |
| DOI | 10.1007/s10750-005-1397-5 |
| Journal | Hydrobiologia, 563:125-142 |
Abstract
We used fuzzy cognitive mapping (FCM) to develop a generic shallow lake ecosystem model by augmenting the individual cognitive maps drawn by 8 scientists working in the area of shallow lake ecology. We calculated graph theoretical indices of the individual cognitive maps and the collective cognitive map produced by augmentation. The graph theoretical indices revealed internal cycles showing non-linear dynamics in the shallow lake ecosystem. The ecological processes were organized democratically without a top-down hierarchical structure. The steady state condition of the generic model was a characteristic turbid shallow lake ecosystem since there were no dynamic environmental changes that could cause shifts between a turbid and a clearwater state, and the generic model indicated that only a dynamic disturbance regime could maintain the clearwater state. The model developed herein captured the empirical behavior of shallow lakes, and contained the basic model of the Alternative Stable States Theory. In addition, our model expanded the basic model by quantifying the relative effects of connections and by extending it. In our expanded model we ran 4 simulations: harvesting submerged plants, nutrient reduction, fish removal without nutrient reduction, and biomanipulation. Only biomanipulation, which included fish removal and nutrient reduction, had the potential to shift the turbid state into clearwater state. The structure and relationships in the generic model as well as the outcomes of the management simulations were supported by actual field studies in shallow lake ecosystems. Thus, fuzzy cognitive mapping methodology enabled us to understand the complex structure of shallow lake ecosystems as a whole and obtain a valid generic model based on tacit knowledge of experts in the field.
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"abstract": "We used fuzzy cognitive mapping (FCM) to develop a generic shallow lake\necosystem model by augmenting the individual cognitive maps drawn by 8\nscientists working in the area of shallow lake ecology. We calculated graph\ntheoretical indices of the individual cognitive maps and the collective\ncognitive map produced by augmentation. The graph theoretical indices revealed\ninternal cycles showing non-linear dynamics in the shallow lake ecosystem. The\necological processes were organized democratically without a top-down\nhierarchical structure. The steady state condition of the generic model was a\ncharacteristic turbid shallow lake ecosystem since there were no dynamic\nenvironmental changes that could cause shifts between a turbid and a clearwater\nstate, and the generic model indicated that only a dynamic disturbance regime\ncould maintain the clearwater state. The model developed herein captured the\nempirical behavior of shallow lakes, and contained the basic model of the\nAlternative Stable States Theory. In addition, our model expanded the basic\nmodel by quantifying the relative effects of connections and by extending it.\nIn our expanded model we ran 4 simulations: harvesting submerged plants,\nnutrient reduction, fish removal without nutrient reduction, and\nbiomanipulation. Only biomanipulation, which included fish removal and nutrient\nreduction, had the potential to shift the turbid state into clearwater state.\nThe structure and relationships in the generic model as well as the outcomes of\nthe management simulations were supported by actual field studies in shallow\nlake ecosystems. Thus, fuzzy cognitive mapping methodology enabled us to\nunderstand the complex structure of shallow lake ecosystems as a whole and\nobtain a valid generic model based on tacit knowledge of experts in the field.",
"arxiv_id": "q-bio/0509022",
"authors": [
"Can O. Tan",
"Uygar Ozesmi"
],
"categories": [
"q-bio.NC",
"q-bio.OT"
],
"doi": "10.1007/s10750-005-1397-5",
"journal_ref": "Hydrobiologia, 563:125-142",
"title": "A Cognitive Model of an Epistemic Community: Mapping the Dynamics of Shallow Lake Ecosystems",
"url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/q-bio/0509022"
},
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