dorsal/arxiv
View SchemaEndogenous versus Exogenous Origins of Crises
| Authors | D. Sornette |
|---|---|
| Categories | |
| ArXiv ID | physics/0412026 |
| URL | https://arxiv.org/abs/physics/0412026 |
| Journal | in the monograph entitled ``Extreme Events in Nature and Society,'' Series: The Frontiers Collection, S. Albeverio, V. Jentsch and H. Kantz, eds. (Springer, Heidelberg, 2005) |
Abstract
Are large biological extinctions such as the Cretaceous/Tertiary KT boundary due to a meteorite, extreme volcanic activity or self-organized critical extinction cascades? Are commercial successes due to a progressive reputation cascade or the result of a well orchestrated advertisement? Determining the chain of causality for extreme events in complex systems requires disentangling interwoven exogenous and endogenous contributions with either no clear or too many signatures. Here, I review several efforts carried out with collaborators, which suggest a general strategy for understanding the organization of several complex systems under the dual effect of endogenous and exogenous fluctuations. The studied examples are: Internet download shocks, book sale shocks, social shocks, financial volatility shocks, and financial crashes. Simple models are offered to quantitatively relate the endogenous organization to the exogenous response of the system. Suggestions for applications of these ideas to many other systems are offered.
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"abstract": "Are large biological extinctions such as the Cretaceous/Tertiary KT boundary\ndue to a meteorite, extreme volcanic activity or self-organized critical\nextinction cascades? Are commercial successes due to a progressive reputation\ncascade or the result of a well orchestrated advertisement? Determining the\nchain of causality for extreme events in complex systems requires disentangling\ninterwoven exogenous and endogenous contributions with either no clear or too\nmany signatures. Here, I review several efforts carried out with collaborators,\nwhich suggest a general strategy for understanding the organization of several\ncomplex systems under the dual effect of endogenous and exogenous fluctuations.\nThe studied examples are: Internet download shocks, book sale shocks, social\nshocks, financial volatility shocks, and financial crashes. Simple models are\noffered to quantitatively relate the endogenous organization to the exogenous\nresponse of the system. Suggestions for applications of these ideas to many\nother systems are offered.",
"arxiv_id": "physics/0412026",
"authors": [
"D. Sornette"
],
"categories": [
"physics.soc-ph",
"physics.gen-ph"
],
"journal_ref": "in the monograph entitled ``Extreme Events in Nature and\n Society,\u0027\u0027 Series: The Frontiers Collection, S. Albeverio, V. Jentsch and H.\n Kantz, eds. (Springer, Heidelberg, 2005)",
"title": "Endogenous versus Exogenous Origins of Crises",
"url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/physics/0412026"
},
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