dorsal/arxiv
View SchemaThe Basic Reproductive Number of Ebola and the Effects of Public Health Measures: The Cases of Congo and Uganda
| Authors | Gerardo Chowell, Nick W. Hengartner, Carlos Castillo-Chavez, Paul W. Fenimore, J. M. Hyman |
|---|---|
| Categories | |
| ArXiv ID | q-bio/0503006 |
| URL | https://arxiv.org/abs/q-bio/0503006 |
| Journal | Journal of Theoretical Biology 229 (2004) |
Abstract
Despite improved control measures, Ebola remains a serious public health risk in African regions where recurrent outbreaks have been observed since the initial epidemic in 1976. Using epidemic modeling and data from two well-documented Ebola outbreaks (Congo 1995 and Uganda 2000), we estimate the number of secondary cases generated by an index case in the absence of control interventions ($R_0$). Our estimate of $R_0$ is 1.83 (SD 0.06) for Congo (1995) and 1.34 (SD 0.03) for Uganda (2000). We model the course of the outbreaks via an SEIR (susceptible-exposed-infectious-removed) epidemic model that includes a smooth transition in the transmission rate after control interventions are put in place. We perform an uncertainty analysis of the basic reproductive number $R_0$ to quantify its sensitivity to other disease-related parameters. We also analyze the sensitivity of the final epidemic size to the time interventions begin and provide a distribution for the final epidemic size. The control measures implemented during these two outbreaks (including education and contact tracing followed by quarantine) reduce the final epidemic size by a factor of 2 relative the final size with a two-week delay in their implementation.
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"abstract": "Despite improved control measures, Ebola remains a serious public health risk\nin African regions where recurrent outbreaks have been observed since the\ninitial epidemic in 1976. Using epidemic modeling and data from two\nwell-documented Ebola outbreaks (Congo 1995 and Uganda 2000), we estimate the\nnumber of secondary cases generated by an index case in the absence of control\ninterventions ($R_0$). Our estimate of $R_0$ is 1.83 (SD 0.06) for Congo (1995)\nand 1.34 (SD 0.03) for Uganda (2000). We model the course of the outbreaks via\nan SEIR (susceptible-exposed-infectious-removed) epidemic model that includes a\nsmooth transition in the transmission rate after control interventions are put\nin place. We perform an uncertainty analysis of the basic reproductive number\n$R_0$ to quantify its sensitivity to other disease-related parameters. We also\nanalyze the sensitivity of the final epidemic size to the time interventions\nbegin and provide a distribution for the final epidemic size. The control\nmeasures implemented during these two outbreaks (including education and\ncontact tracing followed by quarantine) reduce the final epidemic size by a\nfactor of 2 relative the final size with a two-week delay in their\nimplementation.",
"arxiv_id": "q-bio/0503006",
"authors": [
"Gerardo Chowell",
"Nick W. Hengartner",
"Carlos Castillo-Chavez",
"Paul W. Fenimore",
"J. M. Hyman"
],
"categories": [
"q-bio.OT"
],
"journal_ref": "Journal of Theoretical Biology 229 (2004)",
"title": "The Basic Reproductive Number of Ebola and the Effects of Public Health Measures: The Cases of Congo and Uganda",
"url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/q-bio/0503006"
},
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