dorsal/arxiv
View SchemaEpidemics in small world networks
| Authors | M. M. Telo da Gama, A. Nunes |
|---|---|
| Categories | |
| ArXiv ID | q-bio/0509044 |
| URL | https://arxiv.org/abs/q-bio/0509044 |
| DOI | 10.1140/epjb/e2006-00099-7 |
Abstract
For many infectious diseases, a small-world network on an underlying regular lattice is a suitable simplified model for the contact structure of the host population. It is well known that the contact network, described in this setting by a single parameter, the small-world parameter $p$, plays an important role both in the short term and in the long term dynamics of epidemic spread. We have studied the effect of the network structure on models of immune for life diseases and found that in addition to the reduction of the effective transmission rate, through the screening of infectives, spatial correlations may strongly enhance the stochastic fluctuations. As a consequence, time series of unforced Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIR) models provide patterns of recurrent epidemics with realistic amplitudes, suggesting that these models together with complex networks of contacts are the key ingredients to describe the prevaccination dynamical patterns of diseases such as measles and pertussis. We have also studied the role of the host contact strucuture in pathogen antigenic variation, through its effect on the final outcome of an invasion by a viral strain of a population where a very similar virus is endemic. Similar viral strains are modelled by the same infection and reinfection parameters, and by a given degree of cross immunity that represents the antigenic distance between the competing strains. We have found, somewhat surprisingly, that clustering on the network decreases the potential to sustain pathogen diversity.
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"abstract": "For many infectious diseases, a small-world network on an underlying regular\nlattice is a suitable simplified model for the contact structure of the host\npopulation. It is well known that the contact network, described in this\nsetting by a single parameter, the small-world parameter $p$, plays an\nimportant role both in the short term and in the long term dynamics of epidemic\nspread. We have studied the effect of the network structure on models of immune\nfor life diseases and found that in addition to the reduction of the effective\ntransmission rate, through the screening of infectives, spatial correlations\nmay strongly enhance the stochastic fluctuations. As a consequence, time series\nof unforced Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIR) models provide\npatterns of recurrent epidemics with realistic amplitudes, suggesting that\nthese models together with complex networks of contacts are the key ingredients\nto describe the prevaccination dynamical patterns of diseases such as measles\nand pertussis. We have also studied the role of the host contact strucuture in\npathogen antigenic variation, through its effect on the final outcome of an\ninvasion by a viral strain of a population where a very similar virus is\nendemic. Similar viral strains are modelled by the same infection and\nreinfection parameters, and by a given degree of cross immunity that represents\nthe antigenic distance between the competing strains. We have found, somewhat\nsurprisingly, that clustering on the network decreases the potential to sustain\npathogen diversity.",
"arxiv_id": "q-bio/0509044",
"authors": [
"M. M. Telo da Gama",
"A. Nunes"
],
"categories": [
"q-bio.PE"
],
"doi": "10.1140/epjb/e2006-00099-7",
"title": "Epidemics in small world networks",
"url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/q-bio/0509044"
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