dorsal/arxiv
View SchemaSARS oubreaks in Ontario, Hong Kong and Singapore: the role of diagnosis and isolation as a control mechanism
| Authors | Gerardo Chowell, Paul W. Fenimore, Melissa A. Castillo-Garsow, Carlos Castillo-Chavez |
|---|---|
| Categories | |
| ArXiv ID | q-bio/0503002 |
| URL | https://arxiv.org/abs/q-bio/0503002 |
| Journal | Journal of Theoretical Biology 24,1-8 (2003) |
Abstract
In this article we use global and regional data from the SARS epidemic in conjunction with a model of susceptible, exposed, infective, diagnosed, and recovered classes of people (``SEIJR'') to extract average properties and rate constants for those populations. The model is fitted to data from the Ontario (Toronto) in Canada, Hong Kong in China and Singapore outbreaks and predictions are made based on various assumptions and observations, including the current effect of isolating individuals diagnosed with SARS. The epidemic dynamics for Hong Kong and Singapore appear to be different from the dynamics in Toronto, Ontario. Toronto shows a very rapid increase in the number of cases between March 31st and April 6th, followed by a {\it significant} slowing in the number of new cases. We explain this as the result of an increase in the diagnostic rate and in the effectiveness of patient isolation after March 26th. Our best estimates are consistent with SARS eventually being contained in Toronto, although the time of containment is sensitive to the parameters in our model. It is shown that despite the empirically modeled heterogeneity in transmission, SARS' average reproductive number is 1.2, a value quite similar to that computed for some strains of influenza \cite{CC2}. Although it would not be surprising to see levels of SARS infection higher than ten per cent in some regions of the world (if unchecked), lack of data and the observed heterogeneity and sensitivity of parameters prevent us from predicting the long-term impact of SARS.
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"abstract": "In this article we use global and regional data from the SARS epidemic in\nconjunction with a model of susceptible, exposed, infective, diagnosed, and\nrecovered classes of people (``SEIJR\u0027\u0027) to extract average properties and rate\nconstants for those populations. The model is fitted to data from the Ontario\n(Toronto) in Canada, Hong Kong in China and Singapore outbreaks and predictions\nare made based on various assumptions and observations, including the current\neffect of isolating individuals diagnosed with SARS. The epidemic dynamics for\nHong Kong and Singapore appear to be different from the dynamics in Toronto,\nOntario. Toronto shows a very rapid increase in the number of cases between\nMarch 31st and April 6th, followed by a {\\it significant} slowing in the number\nof new cases. We explain this as the result of an increase in the diagnostic\nrate and in the effectiveness of patient isolation after March 26th. Our best\nestimates are consistent with SARS eventually being contained in Toronto,\nalthough the time of containment is sensitive to the parameters in our model.\nIt is shown that despite the empirically modeled heterogeneity in transmission,\nSARS\u0027 average reproductive number is 1.2, a value quite similar to that\ncomputed for some strains of influenza \\cite{CC2}. Although it would not be\nsurprising to see levels of SARS infection higher than ten per cent in some\nregions of the world (if unchecked), lack of data and the observed\nheterogeneity and sensitivity of parameters prevent us from predicting the\nlong-term impact of SARS.",
"arxiv_id": "q-bio/0503002",
"authors": [
"Gerardo Chowell",
"Paul W. Fenimore",
"Melissa A. Castillo-Garsow",
"Carlos Castillo-Chavez"
],
"categories": [
"q-bio.OT"
],
"journal_ref": "Journal of Theoretical Biology 24,1-8 (2003)",
"title": "SARS oubreaks in Ontario, Hong Kong and Singapore: the role of diagnosis and isolation as a control mechanism",
"url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/q-bio/0503002"
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