dorsal/arxiv
View SchemaThe Dynamics of Deterministic Chaos in Numerical Weather Prediction Models
| Authors | A. Mary Selvam |
|---|---|
| Categories | |
| ArXiv ID | physics/0310034 |
| URL | https://arxiv.org/abs/physics/0310034 |
Abstract
Atmospheric weather systems are coherent structures consisting of discrete cloud cells forming patterns of rows/streets, mesoscale clusters and spiral bands which maintain their identity for the duration of their appreciable life times in the turbulent shear flow of the planetary Atmospheric Boundary Layer. The existence of coherent structures (seemingly systematic motion) in turbulent flows has been well established during the last 20 years of research in turbulence. Numerical weather prediction models based on the inherently non-linear Navier-Stokes equations do not give realistic forecasts because of the following inherent limitations: (1) the non-linear governing equations for atmospheric flows do not have exact analytic solutions and being sensitive to initial conditions give chaotic solutions characteristic of deterministic chaos (2) the governing equations do not incorporate the dynamical interactions and co-existence of the complete spectrum of turbulent fluctuations which form an integral part of the large coherent weather systems (3) limitations of available computer capacity necessitates severe truncation of the governing equations, thereby generating errors of approximations (4) the computer precision related roundoff errors magnify the earlier mentioned uncertainties exponentially with time and the model predictions become unrealistic. The accurate modelling of weather phenomena therefore requires alternative concepts and computational techniques. In this paper a universal theory of deterministic chaos applicable to the formation of coherent weather structures in the ABL is presented.
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"abstract": "Atmospheric weather systems are coherent structures consisting of discrete\ncloud cells forming patterns of rows/streets, mesoscale clusters and spiral\nbands which maintain their identity for the duration of their appreciable life\ntimes in the turbulent shear flow of the planetary Atmospheric Boundary Layer.\nThe existence of coherent structures (seemingly systematic motion) in turbulent\nflows has been well established during the last 20 years of research in\nturbulence. Numerical weather prediction models based on the inherently\nnon-linear Navier-Stokes equations do not give realistic forecasts because of\nthe following inherent limitations: (1) the non-linear governing equations for\natmospheric flows do not have exact analytic solutions and being sensitive to\ninitial conditions give chaotic solutions characteristic of deterministic chaos\n(2) the governing equations do not incorporate the dynamical interactions and\nco-existence of the complete spectrum of turbulent fluctuations which form an\nintegral part of the large coherent weather systems (3) limitations of\navailable computer capacity necessitates severe truncation of the governing\nequations, thereby generating errors of approximations (4) the computer\nprecision related roundoff errors magnify the earlier mentioned uncertainties\nexponentially with time and the model predictions become unrealistic. The\naccurate modelling of weather phenomena therefore requires alternative concepts\nand computational techniques. In this paper a universal theory of deterministic\nchaos applicable to the formation of coherent weather structures in the ABL is\npresented.",
"arxiv_id": "physics/0310034",
"authors": [
"A. Mary Selvam"
],
"categories": [
"physics.gen-ph"
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"title": "The Dynamics of Deterministic Chaos in Numerical Weather Prediction Models",
"url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/physics/0310034"
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