dorsal/arxiv
View SchemaA way to synchronize models with seismic faults for earthquake forecasting: Insights from a simple stochastic model
| Authors | Alvaro Gonzalez, Miguel Vazquez-Prada, Javier B. Gomez, Amalio F. Pacheco |
|---|---|
| Categories | |
| ArXiv ID | physics/0507164 |
| URL | https://arxiv.org/abs/physics/0507164 |
| DOI | 10.1016/j.tecto.2006.03.039 |
Abstract
Numerical models are starting to be used for determining the future behaviour of seismic faults and fault networks. Their final goal would be to forecast future large earthquakes. In order to use them for this task, it is necessary to synchronize each model with the current status of the actual fault or fault network it simulates (just as, for example, meteorologists synchronize their models with the atmosphere by incorporating current atmospheric data in them). However, lithospheric dynamics is largely unobservable: important parameters cannot (or can rarely) be measured in Nature. Earthquakes, though, provide indirect but measurable clues of the stress and strain status in the lithosphere, which should be helpful for the synchronization of the models. The rupture area is one of the measurable parameters of earthquakes. Here we explore how it can be used to at least synchronize fault models between themselves and forecast synthetic earthquakes. Our purpose here is to forecast synthetic earthquakes in a simple but stochastic (random) fault model. By imposing the rupture area of the synthetic earthquakes of this model on other models, the latter become partially synchronized with the first one. We use these partially synchronized models to successfully forecast most of the largest earthquakes generated by the first model. This forecasting strategy outperforms others that only take into account the earthquake series. Our results suggest that probably a good way to synchronize more detailed models with real faults is to force them to reproduce the sequence of previous earthquake ruptures on the faults. This hypothesis could be tested in the future with more detailed models and actual seismic data.
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"abstract": "Numerical models are starting to be used for determining the future behaviour\nof seismic faults and fault networks. Their final goal would be to forecast\nfuture large earthquakes. In order to use them for this task, it is necessary\nto synchronize each model with the current status of the actual fault or fault\nnetwork it simulates (just as, for example, meteorologists synchronize their\nmodels with the atmosphere by incorporating current atmospheric data in them).\nHowever, lithospheric dynamics is largely unobservable: important parameters\ncannot (or can rarely) be measured in Nature. Earthquakes, though, provide\nindirect but measurable clues of the stress and strain status in the\nlithosphere, which should be helpful for the synchronization of the models. The\nrupture area is one of the measurable parameters of earthquakes. Here we\nexplore how it can be used to at least synchronize fault models between\nthemselves and forecast synthetic earthquakes. Our purpose here is to forecast\nsynthetic earthquakes in a simple but stochastic (random) fault model. By\nimposing the rupture area of the synthetic earthquakes of this model on other\nmodels, the latter become partially synchronized with the first one. We use\nthese partially synchronized models to successfully forecast most of the\nlargest earthquakes generated by the first model. This forecasting strategy\noutperforms others that only take into account the earthquake series. Our\nresults suggest that probably a good way to synchronize more detailed models\nwith real faults is to force them to reproduce the sequence of previous\nearthquake ruptures on the faults. This hypothesis could be tested in the\nfuture with more detailed models and actual seismic data.",
"arxiv_id": "physics/0507164",
"authors": [
"Alvaro Gonzalez",
"Miguel Vazquez-Prada",
"Javier B. Gomez",
"Amalio F. Pacheco"
],
"categories": [
"physics.geo-ph",
"physics.data-an"
],
"doi": "10.1016/j.tecto.2006.03.039",
"title": "A way to synchronize models with seismic faults for earthquake forecasting: Insights from a simple stochastic model",
"url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/physics/0507164"
},
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