{
  "annotation_id": "9b3e5735-cb95-4b68-83e0-cf191b266a9f",
  "date_created": "2026-03-02T18:00:56.756000Z",
  "date_modified": "2026-03-02T18:00:56.756000Z",
  "file_hash": "d79edd8ed80cce58c8cfb46b25ee889fcf9a8c20846f79a5599ac8320fefd82b",
  "private": false,
  "record": {
    "abstract": "We present a statistical model for the unconditional mean tracks of\nhurricanes. Our model is a semi-parametric scheme that averages together\nobserved hurricane displacements. It has a single parameter that defines the\naveraging length scale, and we derive the optimum value for this parameter\nusing a jackknife. The main purpose of this model is as a starting point for\ndeveloping a statistical model of hurricanes for use in the estimation of the\nwind, rainfall and flooding risks. The model also acts as an optimal filtering\ntool for estimating mean hurricane tracks.",
    "arxiv_id": "physics/0503231",
    "authors": [
      "Tim Hall",
      "Stephen Jewson"
    ],
    "categories": [
      "physics.ao-ph"
    ],
    "title": "Statistical modelling of tropical cyclone tracks: a semi-parametric   model for the mean trajectory",
    "url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/physics/0503231"
  },
  "schema_id": "dorsal/arxiv",
  "source": {
    "execution_id": "97d7ec9f-9dfb-4e7d-8d09-751e3e6a5b48",
    "id": "arXiv Dataset IDs",
    "type": "Model",
    "variant": "snapshot-2026-03-01",
    "version": "0.1.0"
  },
  "user_id": 1000002
}