dorsal/arxiv
View SchemaStatistical modelling of tropical cyclone tracks: a semi-parametric model for the mean trajectory
| Authors | Tim Hall, Stephen Jewson |
|---|---|
| Categories | |
| ArXiv ID | physics/0503231 |
| URL | https://arxiv.org/abs/physics/0503231 |
Abstract
We present a statistical model for the unconditional mean tracks of hurricanes. Our model is a semi-parametric scheme that averages together observed hurricane displacements. It has a single parameter that defines the averaging length scale, and we derive the optimum value for this parameter using a jackknife. The main purpose of this model is as a starting point for developing a statistical model of hurricanes for use in the estimation of the wind, rainfall and flooding risks. The model also acts as an optimal filtering tool for estimating mean hurricane tracks.
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"date_created": "2026-03-02T18:00:56.756000Z",
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"abstract": "We present a statistical model for the unconditional mean tracks of\nhurricanes. Our model is a semi-parametric scheme that averages together\nobserved hurricane displacements. It has a single parameter that defines the\naveraging length scale, and we derive the optimum value for this parameter\nusing a jackknife. The main purpose of this model is as a starting point for\ndeveloping a statistical model of hurricanes for use in the estimation of the\nwind, rainfall and flooding risks. The model also acts as an optimal filtering\ntool for estimating mean hurricane tracks.",
"arxiv_id": "physics/0503231",
"authors": [
"Tim Hall",
"Stephen Jewson"
],
"categories": [
"physics.ao-ph"
],
"title": "Statistical modelling of tropical cyclone tracks: a semi-parametric model for the mean trajectory",
"url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/physics/0503231"
},
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