dorsal/arxiv
View SchemaDemographics of Close-In TESS Exoplanets Orbiting FGK Main-sequence Stars
| Authors | Kaiming Cui, David J. Armstrong, Andreas Hadjigeorghiou, Marina Lafarga, Vedad Kunovac, Lauren Doyle, Luis Agustín Nieto, Rodrigo F. Díaz |
|---|---|
| Categories | |
| ArXiv ID | 2601.09492vv1 |
| URL | https://arxiv.org/abs/2601.09492 |
| DOI | 10.1093/mnras/stag022 |
| License | http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
Abstract
Understanding the demographics of close-in planets is crucial for insights into exoplanet formation and evolution. We present a detailed analysis of occurrence rates for close-in (0.5-16 day) planets with radii between 2 and 20$\,R_{\oplus}$ around FGK main-sequence stars. Our study uses a comprehensive sample from four years of TESS Science Processing Operations Center full-frame image data cross-matched with Gaia, analysed through our rigorous detection, vetting, and validation pipeline. Using high-confidence planet candidates, we apply a hierarchical Bayesian model to determine occurrence rates in the two-dimensional orbital period-radius plane. Our results are presented using 10-by-10 bins across the period-radius parameter space, offering unprecedented resolution and statistical precision. We find an overall occurrence rate of $9.4^{+0.7}_{-0.6}\%$. When using identical binning, our occurrence rate posteriors distributions align with Kepler's but have a magnitude smaller uncertainties on average. For hot Jupiters, we estimate the overall occurrence rate of $0.39^{+0.03}_{-0.02}\%$. This value is consistent with the previous Kepler FGK-type result within $1\sigma$. We find an overall occurrence rate of Neptunian desert planets of $0.08\pm0.01\%$, to our knowledge the first such determination. Additionally, in a volume-limited Gaia subsample within 100 pc in the same parameter region, we measure an overall planet occurrence rate of $15.4^{+1.6}_{-1.5}\%$ and a hot Jupiter occurrence rate of $0.42^{+0.16}_{-0.12}\%$. Our results establishes an improved foundation for constraining theoretical models of exoplanet populations.
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"abstract": "Understanding the demographics of close-in planets is crucial for insights into exoplanet formation and evolution. We present a detailed analysis of occurrence rates for close-in (0.5-16 day) planets with radii between 2 and 20$\\,R_{\\oplus}$ around FGK main-sequence stars. Our study uses a comprehensive sample from four years of TESS Science Processing Operations Center full-frame image data cross-matched with Gaia, analysed through our rigorous detection, vetting, and validation pipeline. Using high-confidence planet candidates, we apply a hierarchical Bayesian model to determine occurrence rates in the two-dimensional orbital period-radius plane. Our results are presented using 10-by-10 bins across the period-radius parameter space, offering unprecedented resolution and statistical precision. We find an overall occurrence rate of $9.4^{+0.7}_{-0.6}\\%$. When using identical binning, our occurrence rate posteriors distributions align with Kepler\u0027s but have a magnitude smaller uncertainties on average. For hot Jupiters, we estimate the overall occurrence rate of $0.39^{+0.03}_{-0.02}\\%$. This value is consistent with the previous Kepler FGK-type result within $1\\sigma$. We find an overall occurrence rate of Neptunian desert planets of $0.08\\pm0.01\\%$, to our knowledge the first such determination. Additionally, in a volume-limited Gaia subsample within 100 pc in the same parameter region, we measure an overall planet occurrence rate of $15.4^{+1.6}_{-1.5}\\%$ and a hot Jupiter occurrence rate of $0.42^{+0.16}_{-0.12}\\%$. Our results establishes an improved foundation for constraining theoretical models of exoplanet populations.",
"arxiv_id": "2601.09492",
"authors": [
"Kaiming Cui",
"David J. Armstrong",
"Andreas Hadjigeorghiou",
"Marina Lafarga",
"Vedad Kunovac",
"Lauren Doyle",
"Luis Agust\u00edn Nieto",
"Rodrigo F. D\u00edaz"
],
"categories": [
"astro-ph.EP"
],
"doi": "10.1093/mnras/stag022",
"license": "http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
"title": "Demographics of Close-In TESS Exoplanets Orbiting FGK Main-sequence Stars",
"url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2601.09492",
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