dorsal/arxiv
View SchemaThe Assessment and Calibration of Ensemble Seasonal Forecasts of Equatorial Pacific Ocean Temperature and the Predictability of Uncertainty
| Authors | Stephen Jewson, Francisco Doblas-Reyes, Renate Hagedorn |
|---|---|
| Categories | |
| ArXiv ID | physics/0308065 |
| URL | https://arxiv.org/abs/physics/0308065 |
Abstract
We evaluate the performance of two 44 year ensemble seasonal hindcast time series for the Nino3 index produced as part of the DEMETER project. We show that the ensemble mean carries useful information out to six months. The ensemble spread, however, only carries useful information out to four months in one of the models, and two months in the other.
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"abstract": "We evaluate the performance of two 44 year ensemble seasonal hindcast time\nseries for the Nino3 index produced as part of the DEMETER project. We show\nthat the ensemble mean carries useful information out to six months. The\nensemble spread, however, only carries useful information out to four months in\none of the models, and two months in the other.",
"arxiv_id": "physics/0308065",
"authors": [
"Stephen Jewson",
"Francisco Doblas-Reyes",
"Renate Hagedorn"
],
"categories": [
"physics.ao-ph"
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"title": "The Assessment and Calibration of Ensemble Seasonal Forecasts of Equatorial Pacific Ocean Temperature and the Predictability of Uncertainty",
"url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/physics/0308065"
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