dorsal/arxiv
View SchemaModeling the Worldwide Spread of Pandemic Influenza: Baseline Case and Containment Interventions
| Authors | Vittoria Colizza, Alain Barrat, Marc Barthelemy, Alain-Jacques Valleron, Alessandro Vespignani |
|---|---|
| Categories | |
| ArXiv ID | q-bio/0701038 |
| URL | https://arxiv.org/abs/q-bio/0701038 |
| DOI | 10.1371/journal.pmed.0040013 |
| Journal | PLoS Med 4(1): e13. (2007) |
Abstract
We present a study of the worldwide spread of a pandemic influenza and its possible containment at a global level taking into account all available information on air travel. We studied a metapopulation stochastic epidemic model on a global scale that considers airline travel flow data among urban areas. We provided a temporal and spatial evolution of the pandemic with a sensitivity analysis of different levels of infectiousness of the virus and initial outbreak conditions (both geographical and seasonal). For each spreading scenario we provided the timeline and the geographical impact of the pandemic in 3,100 urban areas, located in 220 different countries. We compared the baseline cases with different containment strategies, including travel restrictions and the therapeutic use of antiviral (AV) drugs. We show that the inclusion of air transportation is crucial in the assessment of the occurrence probability of global outbreaks. The large-scale therapeutic usage of AV drugs in all hit countries would be able to mitigate a pandemic effect with a reproductive rate as high as 1.9 during the first year; with AV supply use sufficient to treat approximately 2% to 6% of the population, in conjunction with efficient case detection and timely drug distribution. For highly contagious viruses (i.e., a reproductive rate as high as 2.3), even the unrealistic use of supplies corresponding to the treatment of approximately 20% of the population leaves 30%-50% of the population infected. In the case of limited AV supplies and pandemics with a reproductive rate as high as 1.9, we demonstrate that the more cooperative the strategy, the more effective are the containment results in all regions of the world, including those countries that made part of their resources available for global use.
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"abstract": "We present a study of the worldwide spread of a pandemic influenza and its\npossible containment at a global level taking into account all available\ninformation on air travel. We studied a metapopulation stochastic epidemic\nmodel on a global scale that considers airline travel flow data among urban\nareas. We provided a temporal and spatial evolution of the pandemic with a\nsensitivity analysis of different levels of infectiousness of the virus and\ninitial outbreak conditions (both geographical and seasonal). For each\nspreading scenario we provided the timeline and the geographical impact of the\npandemic in 3,100 urban areas, located in 220 different countries. We compared\nthe baseline cases with different containment strategies, including travel\nrestrictions and the therapeutic use of antiviral (AV) drugs. We show that the\ninclusion of air transportation is crucial in the assessment of the occurrence\nprobability of global outbreaks. The large-scale therapeutic usage of AV drugs\nin all hit countries would be able to mitigate a pandemic effect with a\nreproductive rate as high as 1.9 during the first year; with AV supply use\nsufficient to treat approximately 2% to 6% of the population, in conjunction\nwith efficient case detection and timely drug distribution. For highly\ncontagious viruses (i.e., a reproductive rate as high as 2.3), even the\nunrealistic use of supplies corresponding to the treatment of approximately 20%\nof the population leaves 30%-50% of the population infected. In the case of\nlimited AV supplies and pandemics with a reproductive rate as high as 1.9, we\ndemonstrate that the more cooperative the strategy, the more effective are the\ncontainment results in all regions of the world, including those countries that\nmade part of their resources available for global use.",
"arxiv_id": "q-bio/0701038",
"authors": [
"Vittoria Colizza",
"Alain Barrat",
"Marc Barthelemy",
"Alain-Jacques Valleron",
"Alessandro Vespignani"
],
"categories": [
"q-bio.OT",
"cond-mat.stat-mech",
"physics.soc-ph"
],
"doi": "10.1371/journal.pmed.0040013",
"journal_ref": "PLoS Med 4(1): e13. (2007)",
"title": "Modeling the Worldwide Spread of Pandemic Influenza: Baseline Case and Containment Interventions",
"url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/q-bio/0701038"
},
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