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Page 1
Information Classification: General
October 2026
Monthly Gold Monitor
Aakash Doshi , Head of Gold Strategy
Mohamad Abukhalaf , Gold Strategist
Diego Andrade , Senior Gold Strategist
Tom Lam , Gold Strategist
The yellow metal appears resilient, despite Fed and USD headwinds
• Spot gold prices fell 6.3% in September amid a 9.2% drop in silver and 0.6 % loss for commodities. We anticipated a hawkish Fed turn following Jackson Hole . T he Committee tightened policy rates 25 basis points in September and money markets , which were pricing only 1.5 cumulative quarter - point hi kes from September 2026 - June 2027 on August 25 , now anticipate an additional 3. 3 hikes over the next nine months. 1
• T he subsequent back - up in yields across the US curve boosted the dollar to two - month highs and weighed on gold via denomination effects and higher opportunity costs for holding a non - interest - bearing asset . But in our view, bullion markets remain resilient
an d have absorbed policy and rates volatility in relative stride. Indeed, US - listed gold ETFs posted $11. 7 B in inflows in Q3, including $ 3.7 B of net new purchases in September during the sell - off, despite the multi - decade highs in long - end US nominal and real Treasury yields. This more than reversed the $5.6B in sector outflows during Q2. In our view, this suggests ongoing strat egic investor allocations utilizing gold as a monetary hedge , alt ernative - fiat asset , and portfolio diversifier . 2
• The structural drivers behind the gold bull cycle : record government debt loads ; robust physical demand from central banks and China retai l; de - dollarization trends ; heightened geopolitical and economic uncertainty; elevated stock/bond correlations ; etc. seem intact. Indeed, higher rates can exacerbate debt service costs and fiscal imbalances for G10 economies. In China, onshore gold price premiums have surged in 2026, potentially foreshadow ing strong winter seasonal demand. Consumer gold imports in China hit a record 1,141 tonnes in the first eight months of this year, eclipsin g seasonal demand comps in 2018, 2023, and 2024 despite significantly higher prices. 3
• We maintain our base case gold price forecast for markets to rise to $4,750 - 5,500/oz by the end of Q1’27 but reduce the odds from 70% to 60% given current Fed and US dollar headwinds. Our bear case scenario, at 35% probability, sees the marke t holding the $4,000 - 4,750 Q3’26 realized price range over the next six to nine months.
Page 2
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Information Classification: General
Figure 1: The next potential Fed policy error ? Betting on productivity …
Source: Bloomberg Financ e L.P., State Street Investment Management, as of 9/30/2026. Note: Labor productivity represented by non - farm business sector output per hour and shown as a 12 - month rolling average of year - over - year growth. Federal government interest payments measured as net interest outlays. The performance data quoted represents past performance. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
The risk of overestimating productivity
• Recent Fed policy mistakes as perceived by asset markets included the 2013 taper tantrum, tightening and balance sheet runoff in late 2018, and treating inflation as transitory in 2021. 4 The next error may be assuming AI - driven productivity gains will allow the economy to absorb restrictive rates. If those gains arrive more slowly than expected, prolonged restraint could deepen risks for a growth slowdown as rising debt service costs weigh on households, businesses, and the federal government. Greater economic and policy uncertainty could also increase demand for gold as a portfolio diversifier and provide support for prices.
• Inflation has remained above the Fed’s stated 2% target since 2021, and the September S ummary of Economic Projections raised the 2026 core PCE forecast by 0.1 percentage point s to 3.4%. 5 The SEP does not project core PCE inflation to return to 2% until 2029, 6 reinforcing the risk that inflation remains sticky into 2027. This could leave the Fed with limited room to ease as growth potentially stalls and debt service costs rise, creating the potential for a stagflationary environment. A delayed or uneven policy response could weaken confidence in the economic outlook and reinforce gold’s appeal as a store of value.
• Gold may be uniquely positioned if the next policy error stems from overestimating productivity rather than underestimating inflation. The upper bound of the federal funds target range is currently 4%, while markets are pricing an increase to a 4.75% to 5% range by next summer. 7 If productivity gains take longer to materialize, the expected path of rate increases may prove inconsistent with the economy’s underlying capacity. A reassessment of that outlook could increase policy and market volatility, potentially supporting gold investment demand.
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Information Classification: General
Figure 2: Gold technical overview
Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P., State Street Investment Management, as of September 30, 2026. The performance data quoted represents past performance. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Gold’s technical setup shifts focus on key support levels
• Gold has pulled back from its August high s , bringing key technical support levels into focus heading into October. Price s remain below both the 50 - day moving average around $4,322/oz and 200 - day moving average around $4,539/oz, leaving both as potential resistance on a rebound. The broader descending resistance trendline from the January peak also remains overhead, while the ~$4,000/oz area conti nues to provide a key technical floor. 8
• Fibonacci retracement levels drawn across the summer advance show that gold has broken below the 61.8% retracement around $4,231/oz but held above the next Fibonacci support level near $4,121/oz into end - Q3 . A sustained recovery above the 61.8% level would be an initial sign of stabilization, while a break below $4,121/oz would leave the summer low s as the next key downside level. 9
• Gold nevertheless sits just above its lower Bollinger Band around $4,141/oz, with Fibonacci support providing an additional layer of support just below. 10 This area represents an important test heading into October. Holding above it would preserve the broader ~$4,000/oz support structure and suggest the recent pullback remains contained within a wider consolidation rather than signaling a more material deter ioration in trend. While the technical structure will remain important for short - to medium - term price action, the longer - term investment case remains supported by gold’s structural role as a portfolio diversifier, monetary hedge and liquid alternative reserve asset.
3,000
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Oct 25 Oct 25 Nov 25 Dec 25 Jan 26 Feb 26 Mar 26 Apr 26 May 26 Jun 26 Jul 26 Aug 26 Sep 26
$/oz
Gold Spot Price ($/oz) 200D Moving Average 50D Moving Average Support Trend · 4,000 Resistance Trend
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Information Classification: General
Figure 3: Gold s upply remains tight despite higher gold prices
Source: World Gold Council, Bloomberg Finance L.P., State Street Investment Management, as of June 30, 2026. The performance data quoted represents past performance. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Limited gold s upply g rowth l eaves balances tight, with any demand acceleration a bullish sign
• Gold supply consists primarily of mine production and recycled gold, with modest net producer hedging included in total supply but excluded from the chart's stacked bars. Mine production is the largest and least responsive source of supply because new output requires years of exploration, permitting, financing, and development, wherea s gold scrap can respond more quickly to changes in prices and market sentiment. However, recycled supply is soft despite gold trading at high levels , underscoring the limited responsiveness of overall gold supply. 11
• Despite gold rising from roughly $1,225/oz in 2010 to more than $4,500/oz in H1’ 2026, mine production has lagged post - pandemic , from an average of 2,863 tonnes in 2010 - 2012 to about 3,823 tonnes in 2025, highlighting the limited ability of higher prices alone to generate meaningful new supply in the absence of Asian recycling . 12
• Clearly, the notable constraint has been recycling. The amount of gold scrap declined from 57% of mine output in 2010 - 2012 to just 37% in 2025 - H1’ 2026 despite higher prices, including historic highs in INR and CNY terms. 13 The muted recycling response may reflect continued hoarding in key Asian markets, tightening market balances , and gold's structurally inelastic supply profile compared to commodities like oil or corn . As a result, sustained China physical, central bank, and investment demand could translate into higher average gold clearing prices than a robust supply response — at least into 2027 .
$0
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2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 1H2026
LBMA Gold Price ($/oz) Supply (tonnes)
Mine production (tonnes) Recycled gold (tonnes) LBMA Gold Price ($/oz)
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Information Classification: General
Footnotes
1 Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P., State Street Investment Management, as of September 30, 2026.
2 Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P., State Street Investment Management, as of September 30, 2026.
3 Source: China Customs, LBMA, SGE, as of September 30, 2026.
4 Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P., State Street Investment Management, as of September 30, 2026.
5 Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P., State Street Investment Management, as of September 30, 2026.
6 Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P., State Street Investment Management, as of September 30, 2026.
7 Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P., State Street Investment Management, as of September 30, 2026.
8 Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P., State Street Investment Management, as of September 30, 2026 . 9 Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P., State Street Investment Management, as of September 30, 2026 . 10 Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P., State Street Investment Management, as of September 30, 2026 . 11 Source: World Gold Council, Bloomberg Finance L.P., State Street Investment Management, as of June 30, 2026.
12 Source: World Gold Council, Bloomberg Finance L.P., State Street Investment Management, as of June 30, 2026.
13 Source: World Gold Council, Bloomberg Finance L.P., State Street Investment Management, as of June 30, 2026.
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Information Classification: General
Glossary
Central Bank: A national or regional institution responsible for monetary policy, currency management, and financial stability. Central banks also hold gold as part of their official reserves.
Gold ETF: An exchange - traded fund designed to provide investors with exposure to gold prices. Fund inflows and outflows can indicate changes in investment demand for gold.
Gold Spot Price: The price in spot markets for gold. In US dollar terms, spot gold is referred to with the symbol “XAU,” which refers to the price of one troy ounce of gold in USD terms . Real Rates: Interest rates adjusted for inflation. Higher real rates can increase the opportunity cost of holding a non interest - bearing asset such as gold.
Summary of Economic Projections (SEP): The Federal Reserve’s quarterly projections for economic growth, unemployment, inflation, and the federal funds rate.
Core PCE Inflation: The Federal Reserve’s preferred underlying inflation measure, excluding food and energy prices, based on personal consumption expenditures.
De - dollarization: Efforts by countries or institutions to reduce reliance on the US dollar for reserves, trade, or financial transactions, potentially increasing demand for gold as an alternative reserve asset.
Hawkish Fed Turn: A shift by the Federal Reserve toward tighter monetary policy, generally reflected in higher interest rates or expectations that rates will remain elevated.
Moving Average: The average price of an asset over a specified period. The paper uses 50 - day and 200 - day moving averages as potential technical support or resistance levels for gold.
Fibonacci Retracement: A technical - analysis tool that identifies potential support or resistance levels by measuring how much of a prior price move has been retraced.
Bollinger Bands: Volatility - based bands plotted above and below a moving average. Prices near the lower band may indicate that an asset is approaching a potential technical support area.
Recycled Gold: Gold recovered from existing jewelry, investment products, and other fabricated items and returned to the market. Unlike mine production, recycled supply can respond relatively quickly to prices and market conditions.
Page 7
Page 7
Information Classification: General
State Street Investment Management Worldwide Entities
Abu Dhabi : State Street Investment Management Limited, ADGM Branch, Al Khatem Tower, Suite 42801, Level 28, ADGM Square, Al Maryah Island, P.O Box 76404, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates . Regulated by the ADGM Financial Services Regulatory Authority. Telephone: +971 2 245 9000. Australia : State Street Investment Management, Australia, Limited (ABN 42 003 914 225) is the holder of an Australian Financial Services Licence (AFSL Number 238276). Registered office: Level 14, 420 George Street, Sydney, NSW 2000, Australia T: +612 9240 - 7600. F: +612 9240 - 7611. Belgium : State Street Investment Management Fosbury & Sons Chaussée de La Hulpe, 185 B - 1170 Watermael - Boitsfort, Belgium. Telephone: 32 2 663 2036, Facsimile: 32 2 672 2077. SSGA Belgium is a branch office of State Street Investment Management Ireland Limited. St ate Street Investment Management Ireland Limited, registered in Ireland with company number 145221, authorised and regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland, and whose registered office is at 78 Sir John Rogerson’s Quay, Dublin 2. Canada : State Street Investment Management, Ltd., 1981 McGill College Avenue, Suite 500 , Montreal, Quebec, H3A 3A8, T: +514 282 2400 and 30 Adelaide Street East Suite 800, Toronto, Ontario M5C 3G6. T: +647 775 5900. France : State Street Investment Management Ireland Limited, Paris branch is a branch of State Street Investment Management Ireland Limited, registered in Ireland with company number 145221, authorised and regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland, and whose regis tered office is at 78 Sir John Rogerson’s Quay, Dublin 2. State Street Investment Management Ireland Limited, Paris Branch, is registered in France with company number RCS Nanterre 832 734 602 and whose office is at Coeur Défense - Tour A - La Défense 4 33 e étage 100, Esplanade du Général de Gaulle 92 932 Paris La Défense cedex France. T: (+33) 1 44 45 40 00. F: (+33) 1 44 45 41 92. Germany : State Street Investment Management GmbH, Brienner Strasse 59, D - 80333 Munich. Authorised and regulated by the Bundesanstalt für Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht (“BaFin”). Registered with the Register of Commerce Munich HRB 121381. T: +49 (0)89 - 55878 - 400. F : +49 (0)89 - 55878 - 440. Hong Kong : State Street Investment Management Asia Limited, 68/F, Two International Finance Centre, 8 Finance Street, Central, Hong Kong. T: +852 2103 - 0288. F: +852 2103 - 0200. Ireland : State Street Investment Management Ireland Limited is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland. Registered office address 78 Sir John Rogerson’s Quay, Dublin 2. Registered Number: 145221. T: +353 (0)1 776 3000. F: +353 (0)1 776 3300. Italy : State Street Investment Management Ireland Limited, Milan Branch (Sede Secondaria di Milano) is a branch of State Street Investment Management Ireland Limited, register ed in Ireland with company number 145221, authorised and regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland, and whose registered office is at 78 Sir John Rogerson’s Quay, Dublin 2. State Street Investment Management Ireland Limited, Milan Branch (Sede Secondaria di Milano), is registered in Italy with company number 10495250960 - R.E.A. 2535585 and VAT number 10495250960 and whose office is at Via Ferrante Aporti, 10 - 20125 Milano, Italy. Telephone: +39 02 32066 100. Facsimile: +39 02 32066 155. Japan : State Street Investment Management (Japan) Co., Ltd., Toranomon Hills Mori Tower 25F 1 - 23 - 1 Toranomon, Minato - ku, Tokyo 105 6325 Japan. T: +81 - 3 - 4530 - 7380. Financial Instruments Business Operator, Kanto Local Financial Bureau (Kinsho #345), Membership: J apan Investment Advisers Association, The Investment Trust Association, Japan, Japan Securities Dealers’ Association. Netherlands : State Street Investment Management Netherlands, Apollo Building, 7th floor Herikerbergweg 29 1101 CN Amsterdam, Netherlands. Telephone: 31 20 7181701. SSGA Netherlands is a branch office of State Street Investment Management Ireland Limited, registered i n Ireland with company number 145221, authorised and regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland, and whose registered office is at 78 Sir John Rogerson’s Quay, Dublin 2. Singapore : State Street Investment Management Singapore Limited, 168, Robinson Road, #33 - 01 Capital Tower, Singapore 068912 (Company Reg. No: 200002719D, regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore). T: +65 6826 - 7555. F: +65 6826 - 7501. Switzerland : State Street Investment Management AG, Beethovenstr. 19, CH - 8027 Zurich. Registered with the Register of Commerce Zurich CHE
105.078.458. T: +41 (0)44 245 70 00. F: +41 (0)44 245 70 16. United Kingdom : State Street Investment Management Limited. Authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Registered in England. Registered No. 2509928. VAT No. 5776591 81. Registered office: 20 Churchill Place, Canary Wharf, London, E14 5HJ. T: 020 3395 6000. F: 020 3395 6350. United States: State Street Investment Management, 1 Iron Street, Boston, MA 02210 - 1641.
Page 8
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Information Classification: General
Important Risk Information
State Street Global Advisors (SSGA) is now State Street Investment Management. Visi t statestreet.com/IM for more information
This communication is not intended to be an investment recommendation or investment advice and should not be relied upon as such.
The views expressed in this material are the views of the SPDR Gold Strategy Team through the period ending September 3 0 , 2026, and are subject to change based on market and other conditions. This document contains certain statements that may be deemed forward looking statements. Please note that any such statements are not guarantees of any future performance and actual re sults or developments may differ materially from those projected.
The information provided does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be consi dered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment obje ctives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your tax and financial advisor.
The trademarks and service marks referenced herein are the property of their respective owners. Third party data providers ma ke no warranties or representations of any kind relating to the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of the data and have no lia bil ity for damages of any kind relating to the use of such data.
The whole or any part of this work may not be reproduced, copied or transmitted or any of its contents disclosed to third par ties without SSGA’s express written consent.
Commodities and commodity - index linked securities may be affected by changes in overall market movements, changes in interest rates, and other factors such as weather, disease, embargoes, or political and regulatory developments, as well as trading ac tivit y of speculators and arbitrageurs in the underlying commodities.
Investing in commodities entails significant risk and is not appropriate for all investors.
Diversification does not ensure a profit or guarantee against loss.
There are risks associated with investing in Real Assets and the Real Assets sector, including real estate, precious metals a nd natural resources. Investments can be significantly affected by events relating to these industries.
For EMEA Investors: The information contained in this communication is not a research recommendation or ‘investment research’ and is classified as a ‘Marketing Communication’ in accordance with the Markets in Financial Instruments Directive (2014/65/E U). T his means that this marketing communication (a) has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research (b) is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination o f investmen t research.
The performance data quoted represents past performance. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
© 2026 State Street Corporation. All Rights Reserved. 7599374.3 2 .1.GBL.RTL Exp. Date: 1 0 /31/202 7
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