dorsal/arxiv
View SchemaThe effect of travel restrictions on the spread of a highly contagious disease in Sweden
| Authors | Martin Camitz, Fredrik Liljeros |
|---|---|
| Categories | |
| ArXiv ID | q-bio/0505044 |
| URL | https://arxiv.org/abs/q-bio/0505044 |
Abstract
Travel restrictions may reduce the spread of a contagious disease that threatens public health. In this study we investigate what effect different levels of travel restrictions may have on the speed and geographical spread of an outbreak of a disease similar to SARS. We use a stochastic simulation model of the Swedish population, calibrated with survey data of travel patterns between municipalities in Sweden collected over three years. We find that a ban on journeys longer than 50 km drastically reduces the speed and the geographical spread of outbreaks, even with when compliance is less than 100%. The result is found to be robust for different rates of inter-municipality transmission intensities. Travel restrictions may therefore be an effective way to mitigate the effect of a future outbreak.
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"abstract": "Travel restrictions may reduce the spread of a contagious disease that\nthreatens public health. In this study we investigate what effect different\nlevels of travel restrictions may have on the speed and geographical spread of\nan outbreak of a disease similar to SARS. We use a stochastic simulation model\nof the Swedish population, calibrated with survey data of travel patterns\nbetween municipalities in Sweden collected over three years. We find that a ban\non journeys longer than 50 km drastically reduces the speed and the\ngeographical spread of outbreaks, even with when compliance is less than 100%.\nThe result is found to be robust for different rates of inter-municipality\ntransmission intensities. Travel restrictions may therefore be an effective way\nto mitigate the effect of a future outbreak.",
"arxiv_id": "q-bio/0505044",
"authors": [
"Martin Camitz",
"Fredrik Liljeros"
],
"categories": [
"q-bio.QM",
"physics.soc-ph",
"q-bio.OT"
],
"title": "The effect of travel restrictions on the spread of a highly contagious disease in Sweden",
"url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/q-bio/0505044"
},
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