{
  "annotation_id": "69f91da8-db01-410b-8c85-872ac2677671",
  "date_created": "2026-03-02T18:00:46.928000Z",
  "date_modified": "2026-03-02T18:00:46.928000Z",
  "file_hash": "e67cb059aa98411d2809538b867c4ea42f40bb50602a901235a37fb1f0524531",
  "private": false,
  "record": {
    "abstract": "We ask the following question: what are the relative contributions of the\nensemble mean and the ensemble standard deviation to the skill of a\nsite-specific probabilistic temperature forecast? Is it the case that most of\nthe benefit of using an ensemble forecast to predict temperatures comes from\nthe ensemble mean, or from the ensemble spread, or is the benefit derived\nequally from the two? The answer is that one of the two is much more useful\nthan the other.",
    "arxiv_id": "physics/0310059",
    "authors": [
      "Stephen Jewson"
    ],
    "categories": [
      "physics.ao-ph"
    ],
    "title": "Comparing the ensemble mean and the ensemble standard deviation as   inputs for probabilistic medium-range temperature forecasts",
    "url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/physics/0310059"
  },
  "schema_id": "dorsal/arxiv",
  "source": {
    "execution_id": "d5bc9ff7-7aea-4032-8b86-73a7e21b0046",
    "id": "arXiv Dataset IDs",
    "type": "Model",
    "variant": "snapshot-2026-03-01",
    "version": "0.1.0"
  },
  "user_id": 1000002
}