dorsal/arxiv
View SchemaObservation Timelines for the Potential Lunar Impact of Asteroid 2024 YR4
| Authors | Yifan He, Yixuan Wu, Yifei Jiao, Wen-Yue Dai, Xin Liu, Bin Cheng, Hexi Baoyin |
|---|---|
| Categories | |
| ArXiv ID | 2601.10666vv1 |
| URL | https://arxiv.org/abs/2601.10666 |
| License | http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/ |
Abstract
The near-Earth asteroid 2024 YR4 -- a $\sim$60 m rocky object that was once considered a potential Earth impactor -- has since been ruled out for Earth but retained a $\sim$4.3% probability of striking the Moon in 2032. Such an impact, with equivalent kinetic energy of $\sim$6.5 Mt TNT, is expected to produce a $\sim$1 km crater on the Moon, and will be the most energetic lunar impact event ever recorded in human history. Despite the associated risk, this scenario offers a rare and valuable scientific opportunity. Using a hybrid framework combining Monte Carlo orbital propagation, smoothed particle hydrodynamics (SPH) impact modeling, and N-body ejecta dynamics, we evaluate the physical outcomes and propose the observation timelines of this rare event. Our results suggest an optical flash of visual magnitude from -2.5 to -3 lasting several minutes directly after the impact, followed by hours of infrared afterglow from $\sim$2000 K molten rock cooling to a few hundred K. The associated seismic energy release would lead to a global-scale lunar reverberation (magnitude $\sim$5.0) that can be detectable by modern seismometers. Furthermore, the impact would eject $\sim$10$^8$ kg of debris that escapes the lunar gravity, with a small fraction reaching Earth to produce a lunar meteor outburst within 100 years. Finally, we integrate these results into a coordinated observation timeline, identifying the best detection windows for ground-based telescopes, lunar orbiters, and surface stations.
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"abstract": "The near-Earth asteroid 2024 YR4 -- a $\\sim$60 m rocky object that was once considered a potential Earth impactor -- has since been ruled out for Earth but retained a $\\sim$4.3% probability of striking the Moon in 2032. Such an impact, with equivalent kinetic energy of $\\sim$6.5 Mt TNT, is expected to produce a $\\sim$1 km crater on the Moon, and will be the most energetic lunar impact event ever recorded in human history. Despite the associated risk, this scenario offers a rare and valuable scientific opportunity. Using a hybrid framework combining Monte Carlo orbital propagation, smoothed particle hydrodynamics (SPH) impact modeling, and N-body ejecta dynamics, we evaluate the physical outcomes and propose the observation timelines of this rare event. Our results suggest an optical flash of visual magnitude from -2.5 to -3 lasting several minutes directly after the impact, followed by hours of infrared afterglow from $\\sim$2000 K molten rock cooling to a few hundred K. The associated seismic energy release would lead to a global-scale lunar reverberation (magnitude $\\sim$5.0) that can be detectable by modern seismometers. Furthermore, the impact would eject $\\sim$10$^8$ kg of debris that escapes the lunar gravity, with a small fraction reaching Earth to produce a lunar meteor outburst within 100 years. Finally, we integrate these results into a coordinated observation timeline, identifying the best detection windows for ground-based telescopes, lunar orbiters, and surface stations.",
"arxiv_id": "2601.10666",
"authors": [
"Yifan He",
"Yixuan Wu",
"Yifei Jiao",
"Wen-Yue Dai",
"Xin Liu",
"Bin Cheng",
"Hexi Baoyin"
],
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"astro-ph.EP"
],
"license": "http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/",
"title": "Observation Timelines for the Potential Lunar Impact of Asteroid 2024 YR4",
"url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2601.10666",
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