dorsal/arxiv
View SchemaIs There a Real-Estate Bubble in the US?
| Authors | Wei-Xing Zhou, Didier Sornette |
|---|---|
| Categories | |
| ArXiv ID | physics/0506027 |
| URL | https://arxiv.org/abs/physics/0506027 |
| DOI | 10.1016/j.physa.2005.06.098 |
| Journal | Physica A 361, 297-308 (2006) |
Abstract
We analyze the quarterly average sale prices of new houses sold in the USA as a whole, in the northeast, midwest, south, and west of the USA, in each of the 50 states and the District of Columbia of the USA, to determine whether they have grown faster-than-exponential which we take as the diagnostic of a bubble. We find that 22 states (mostly Northeast and West) exhibit clear-cut signatures of a fast growing bubble. From the analysis of the S&P 500 Home Index, we conclude that the turning point of the bubble will probably occur around mid-2006.
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"abstract": "We analyze the quarterly average sale prices of new houses sold in the USA as\na whole, in the northeast, midwest, south, and west of the USA, in each of the\n50 states and the District of Columbia of the USA, to determine whether they\nhave grown faster-than-exponential which we take as the diagnostic of a bubble.\nWe find that 22 states (mostly Northeast and West) exhibit clear-cut signatures\nof a fast growing bubble. From the analysis of the S\u0026P 500 Home Index, we\nconclude that the turning point of the bubble will probably occur around\nmid-2006.",
"arxiv_id": "physics/0506027",
"authors": [
"Wei-Xing Zhou",
"Didier Sornette"
],
"categories": [
"physics.soc-ph",
"q-fin.GN"
],
"doi": "10.1016/j.physa.2005.06.098",
"journal_ref": "Physica A 361, 297-308 (2006)",
"title": "Is There a Real-Estate Bubble in the US?",
"url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/physics/0506027"
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