dorsal/arxiv
View SchemaRecurrence intervals between earthquakes strongly depend on history
| Authors | V. Livina, S. Tuzov, S. Havlin, A. Bunde |
|---|---|
| Categories | |
| ArXiv ID | physics/0410274 |
| URL | https://arxiv.org/abs/physics/0410274 |
| DOI | 10.1016/j.physa.2004.08.032 |
Abstract
We study the statistics of the recurrence times between earthquakes above a certain magnitude M$ in California. We find that the distribution of the recurrence times strongly depends on the previous recurrence time $\tau_0$. As a consequence, the conditional mean recurrence time $\hat \tau(\tau_0)$ between two events increases monotonically with $\tau_0$. For $\tau_0$ well below the average recurrence time $\ov{\tau}, \hat\tau(\tau_0)$ is smaller than $\ov{\tau}$, while for $\tau_0>\ov{\tau}$, $\hat\tau(\tau_0)$ is greater than $\ov{\tau}$. Also the mean residual time until the next earthquake does not depend only on the elapsed time, but also strongly on $\tau_0$. The larger $\tau_0$ is, the larger is the mean residual time. The above features should be taken into account in any earthquake prognosis.
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"abstract": "We study the statistics of the recurrence times between earthquakes above a\ncertain magnitude M$ in California. We find that the distribution of the\nrecurrence times strongly depends on the previous recurrence time $\\tau_0$. As\na consequence, the conditional mean recurrence time $\\hat \\tau(\\tau_0)$ between\ntwo events increases monotonically with $\\tau_0$. For $\\tau_0$ well below the\naverage recurrence time $\\ov{\\tau}, \\hat\\tau(\\tau_0)$ is smaller than\n$\\ov{\\tau}$, while for $\\tau_0\u003e\\ov{\\tau}$, $\\hat\\tau(\\tau_0)$ is greater than\n$\\ov{\\tau}$. Also the mean residual time until the next earthquake does not\ndepend only on the elapsed time, but also strongly on $\\tau_0$. The larger\n$\\tau_0$ is, the larger is the mean residual time. The above features should be\ntaken into account in any earthquake prognosis.",
"arxiv_id": "physics/0410274",
"authors": [
"V. Livina",
"S. Tuzov",
"S. Havlin",
"A. Bunde"
],
"categories": [
"physics.geo-ph",
"physics.data-an"
],
"doi": "10.1016/j.physa.2004.08.032",
"title": "Recurrence intervals between earthquakes strongly depend on history",
"url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/physics/0410274"
},
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