{
  "annotation_id": "5550d820-c9e7-4f72-92be-51b417716aea",
  "date_created": "2026-03-02T18:00:53.453000Z",
  "date_modified": "2026-03-02T18:00:53.453000Z",
  "file_hash": "bb869f216eb328b0bea5ba8f7239dfdd56cc0dc0871ab7145ac3d0b7049dafd7",
  "private": false,
  "record": {
    "abstract": "We study the statistics of the recurrence times between earthquakes above a\ncertain magnitude M$ in California. We find that the distribution of the\nrecurrence times strongly depends on the previous recurrence time $\\tau_0$. As\na consequence, the conditional mean recurrence time $\\hat \\tau(\\tau_0)$ between\ntwo events increases monotonically with $\\tau_0$. For $\\tau_0$ well below the\naverage recurrence time $\\ov{\\tau}, \\hat\\tau(\\tau_0)$ is smaller than\n$\\ov{\\tau}$, while for $\\tau_0\u003e\\ov{\\tau}$, $\\hat\\tau(\\tau_0)$ is greater than\n$\\ov{\\tau}$. Also the mean residual time until the next earthquake does not\ndepend only on the elapsed time, but also strongly on $\\tau_0$. The larger\n$\\tau_0$ is, the larger is the mean residual time. The above features should be\ntaken into account in any earthquake prognosis.",
    "arxiv_id": "physics/0410274",
    "authors": [
      "V. Livina",
      "S. Tuzov",
      "S. Havlin",
      "A. Bunde"
    ],
    "categories": [
      "physics.geo-ph",
      "physics.data-an"
    ],
    "doi": "10.1016/j.physa.2004.08.032",
    "title": "Recurrence intervals between earthquakes strongly depend on history",
    "url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/physics/0410274"
  },
  "schema_id": "dorsal/arxiv",
  "source": {
    "execution_id": "4a48ab94-6baa-42ec-b1ac-e90f3b64a813",
    "id": "arXiv Dataset IDs",
    "type": "Model",
    "variant": "snapshot-2026-03-01",
    "version": "0.1.0"
  },
  "user_id": 1000002
}