dorsal/arxiv
View SchemaMonte Carlo modeling of the effect of extreme events on the extinction dynamics of animal species with 2-year life cycles
| Authors | Sukanto Bhattacharya, Sreepurna Malakar |
|---|---|
| Categories | |
| ArXiv ID | q-bio/0506035 |
| URL | https://arxiv.org/abs/q-bio/0506035 |
Abstract
Our paper computationally explores the extinction dynamics of an animal species effected by a sudden spike in mortality due to an extreme event. In our study, the animal species has a 2-year life cycle and is endowed with a high survival probability under normal circumstances. Our proposed approach does not involve any restraining assumptions concerning environmental variables or predator-prey relationships. Rather it is based on the simple premise that if observed on an year-to-year basis, the population size will be noted to either have gone up or come down as compared to last year. The conceptualization is borrowed from the theory of asset pricing in stochastic finance. Our results indicate that an extreme event with a maximum shock size (i.e. the maximum number of immediate mortalities that may be caused by an extreme event) exceeding two-thirds the size of the pristine population can potentially drive any animal species with a 2-year life cycle to extinction for any fecundity level.
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"abstract": "Our paper computationally explores the extinction dynamics of an animal\nspecies effected by a sudden spike in mortality due to an extreme event. In our\nstudy, the animal species has a 2-year life cycle and is endowed with a high\nsurvival probability under normal circumstances. Our proposed approach does not\ninvolve any restraining assumptions concerning environmental variables or\npredator-prey relationships. Rather it is based on the simple premise that if\nobserved on an year-to-year basis, the population size will be noted to either\nhave gone up or come down as compared to last year. The conceptualization is\nborrowed from the theory of asset pricing in stochastic finance. Our results\nindicate that an extreme event with a maximum shock size (i.e. the maximum\nnumber of immediate mortalities that may be caused by an extreme event)\nexceeding two-thirds the size of the pristine population can potentially drive\nany animal species with a 2-year life cycle to extinction for any fecundity\nlevel.",
"arxiv_id": "q-bio/0506035",
"authors": [
"Sukanto Bhattacharya",
"Sreepurna Malakar"
],
"categories": [
"q-bio.QM",
"q-bio.PE"
],
"title": "Monte Carlo modeling of the effect of extreme events on the extinction dynamics of animal species with 2-year life cycles",
"url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/q-bio/0506035"
},
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