{
  "annotation_id": "51a548dd-7dfc-4c3d-98c7-5f011cee0cd6",
  "date_created": "2026-02-17T05:53:08.166000Z",
  "date_modified": "2026-02-17T05:53:08.166000Z",
  "file_hash": "95e2c0a1221b41a145eeed421a3b3b9481c0dfbd14c1507c0a15341f859b9b22",
  "private": false,
  "record": {
    "abstract": "Understanding the long-term relationship between atmospheric $CO_2$ and global temperature is fundamental to assessing Earth\u0027s climate sensitivity. This study applies a Structural Vector Error Correction Model (SVECM) to paleoclimate records from the EPICA Dome C and Vostok ice cores, spanning the last 800,000 years. By leveraging the statistical property of cointegration, we identify a robust, long-term equilibrium relationship between temperature and log-transformed $CO_2$ concentrations while controlling for orbital forcing ($N60J$). Our results, based on 854 observations, reveal a strong causal link with a long-term coefficient ($\\beta$) of 17.30, characterized by a high level of statistical significance ($z = -3.82$). This corresponds to an Earth System Sensitivity (ESS) of approximately 12.0$^\\circ$C per doubling of $CO_2$. Forecast Error Variance Decomposition (FEVD) further demonstrates that $CO_2$ shocks account for approximately 40\\% of the long-term temperature variance.",
    "arxiv_id": "2601.06986",
    "authors": [
      "Satoshi Nakano",
      "Kazuhiko Nishimura"
    ],
    "categories": [
      "physics.ao-ph"
    ],
    "license": "http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/",
    "title": "Structural Cointegration of the Paleoclimate: Estimating Earth System Sensitivity",
    "url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2601.06986",
    "version": "v1"
  },
  "schema_id": "dorsal/arxiv",
  "source": {
    "execution_id": "10e7a840-c2f4-489e-a728-8ed116d245f2",
    "id": "arXiv Dataset",
    "type": "Model",
    "variant": "snapshot-2026-01-17",
    "version": "0.1.0"
  },
  "user_id": 1000002
}