dorsal/arxiv
View SchemaVolcanic forcing improves Atmosphere-Ocean Coupled General Circulation Model scaling performance
| Authors | Dmitry Vyushin, Igor Zhidkov, Shlomo Havlin, Armin Bunde, Stephen Brenner |
|---|---|
| Categories | |
| ArXiv ID | physics/0401143 |
| URL | https://arxiv.org/abs/physics/0401143 |
| DOI | 10.1029/2004GL019499 |
Abstract
Recent Atmosphere-Ocean Coupled General Circulation Model (AOGCM) simulations of the twentieth century climate, which account for anthropogenic and natural forcings, make it possible to study the origin of long-term temperature correlations found in the observed records. We study ensemble experiments performed with the NCAR PCM for 10 different historical scenarios, including no forcings, greenhouse gas, sulfate aerosol, ozone, solar, volcanic forcing and various combinations, such as it natural, anthropogenic and all forcings. We compare the scaling exponents characterizing the long-term correlations of the observed and simulated model data for 16 representative land stations and 16 sites in the Atlantic Ocean for these scenarios. We find that inclusion of volcanic forcing in the AOGCM considerably improves the PCM scaling behavior. The scenarios containing volcanic forcing are able to reproduce quite well the observed scaling exponents for the land with exponents around 0.65 independent of the station distance from the ocean. For the Atlantic Ocean, scenarios with the volcanic forcing slightly underestimate the observed persistence exhibiting an average exponent 0.74 instead of 0.85 for reconstructed data.
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"abstract": "Recent Atmosphere-Ocean Coupled General Circulation Model (AOGCM) simulations\nof the twentieth century climate, which account for anthropogenic and natural\nforcings, make it possible to study the origin of long-term temperature\ncorrelations found in the observed records. We study ensemble experiments\nperformed with the NCAR PCM for 10 different historical scenarios, including no\nforcings, greenhouse gas, sulfate aerosol, ozone, solar, volcanic forcing and\nvarious combinations, such as it natural, anthropogenic and all forcings. We\ncompare the scaling exponents characterizing the long-term correlations of the\nobserved and simulated model data for 16 representative land stations and 16\nsites in the Atlantic Ocean for these scenarios. We find that inclusion of\nvolcanic forcing in the AOGCM considerably improves the PCM scaling behavior.\nThe scenarios containing volcanic forcing are able to reproduce quite well the\nobserved scaling exponents for the land with exponents around 0.65 independent\nof the station distance from the ocean. For the Atlantic Ocean, scenarios with\nthe volcanic forcing slightly underestimate the observed persistence exhibiting\nan average exponent 0.74 instead of 0.85 for reconstructed data.",
"arxiv_id": "physics/0401143",
"authors": [
"Dmitry Vyushin",
"Igor Zhidkov",
"Shlomo Havlin",
"Armin Bunde",
"Stephen Brenner"
],
"categories": [
"physics.ao-ph",
"physics.data-an"
],
"doi": "10.1029/2004GL019499",
"title": "Volcanic forcing improves Atmosphere-Ocean Coupled General Circulation Model scaling performance",
"url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/physics/0401143"
},
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