dorsal/arxiv
View SchemaClimate simulations for 1880-2003 with GISS modelE
| Authors | J. Hansen, M. Sato, R. Ruedy, P. Kharecha, A. Lacis, R. Miller, L. Nazarenko, K. Lo, G. A. Schmidt, G. Russell, I. Aleinov, S. Bauer, E. Baum, B. Cairns, V. Canuto, M. Chandler, Y. Cheng, A. Cohen, A. Del Genio, G. Faluvegi, E. Fleming, A. Friend, T. Hall, C. Jackman, J. Jonas, M. Kelley, N. Y. Kiang, D. Koch, G. Labow, J. Lerner, S. Menon, T. Novakov, V. Oinas, Ja. Perlwitz, Ju. Perlwitz, D. Rind, A. Romanou, R. Schmunk, D. Shindell, P. Stone, S. Sun, D. Streets, N. Tausnev, D. Thresher, N. Unger, M. Yao, S. Zhang |
|---|---|
| Categories | |
| ArXiv ID | physics/0610109 |
| URL | https://arxiv.org/abs/physics/0610109 |
| DOI | 10.1007/s00382-007-0255-8 |
| Journal | Publ. in Clim. Dynam., 29, 661-696 (2007) |
Abstract
We carry out climate simulations for 1880-2003 with GISS modelE driven by ten measured or estimated climate forcings. An ensemble of climate model runs is carried out for each forcing acting individually and for all forcing mechanisms acting together. We compare side-by-side simulated climate change for each forcing, all forcings, observations, unforced variability among model ensemble members, and, if available, observed variability. Discrepancies between observations and simulations with all forcings are due to model deficiencies, inaccurate or incomplete forcings, and imperfect observations. Although there are notable discrepancies between model and observations, the fidelity is sufficient to encourage use of the model for simulations of future climate change. By using a fixed well-documented model and accurately defining the 1880-2003 forcings, we aim to provide a benchmark against which the effect of improvements in the model, climate forcings, and observations can be tested. Principal model deficiencies include unrealistically weak tropical El Nino-like variability and a poor distribution of sea ice, with too much sea ice in the Northern Hemisphere and too little in the Southern Hemisphere. The greatest uncertainties in the forcings are the temporal and spatial variations of anthropogenic aerosols and their indirect effects on clouds.
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"abstract": "We carry out climate simulations for 1880-2003 with GISS modelE driven by ten\nmeasured or estimated climate forcings. An ensemble of climate model runs is\ncarried out for each forcing acting individually and for all forcing mechanisms\nacting together. We compare side-by-side simulated climate change for each\nforcing, all forcings, observations, unforced variability among model ensemble\nmembers, and, if available, observed variability. Discrepancies between\nobservations and simulations with all forcings are due to model deficiencies,\ninaccurate or incomplete forcings, and imperfect observations. Although there\nare notable discrepancies between model and observations, the fidelity is\nsufficient to encourage use of the model for simulations of future climate\nchange. By using a fixed well-documented model and accurately defining the\n1880-2003 forcings, we aim to provide a benchmark against which the effect of\nimprovements in the model, climate forcings, and observations can be tested.\nPrincipal model deficiencies include unrealistically weak tropical El Nino-like\nvariability and a poor distribution of sea ice, with too much sea ice in the\nNorthern Hemisphere and too little in the Southern Hemisphere. The greatest\nuncertainties in the forcings are the temporal and spatial variations of\nanthropogenic aerosols and their indirect effects on clouds.",
"arxiv_id": "physics/0610109",
"authors": [
"J. Hansen",
"M. Sato",
"R. Ruedy",
"P. Kharecha",
"A. Lacis",
"R. Miller",
"L. Nazarenko",
"K. Lo",
"G. A. Schmidt",
"G. Russell",
"I. Aleinov",
"S. Bauer",
"E. Baum",
"B. Cairns",
"V. Canuto",
"M. Chandler",
"Y. Cheng",
"A. Cohen",
"A. Del Genio",
"G. Faluvegi",
"E. Fleming",
"A. Friend",
"T. Hall",
"C. Jackman",
"J. Jonas",
"M. Kelley",
"N. Y. Kiang",
"D. Koch",
"G. Labow",
"J. Lerner",
"S. Menon",
"T. Novakov",
"V. Oinas",
"Ja. Perlwitz",
"Ju. Perlwitz",
"D. Rind",
"A. Romanou",
"R. Schmunk",
"D. Shindell",
"P. Stone",
"S. Sun",
"D. Streets",
"N. Tausnev",
"D. Thresher",
"N. Unger",
"M. Yao",
"S. Zhang"
],
"categories": [
"physics.ao-ph",
"physics.geo-ph"
],
"doi": "10.1007/s00382-007-0255-8",
"journal_ref": "Publ. in Clim. Dynam., 29, 661-696 (2007)",
"title": "Climate simulations for 1880-2003 with GISS modelE",
"url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/physics/0610109"
},
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