dorsal/arxiv
View SchemaSingle Member Selection in Ensemble Forecasting
| Authors | F J Tapiador, R Verdejo |
|---|---|
| Categories | |
| ArXiv ID | physics/0609005 |
| URL | https://arxiv.org/abs/physics/0609005 |
| DOI | 10.1029/2005GL024888 |
Abstract
Ensemble forecasting is a technique devised to palliate sensitivity to initial conditions in nonlinear dynamical systems. The basic idea to avoid this sensitivity is to run the model many times under several slightly-different initial conditions, merging the resulting forecast in a combined product. We argue that this blending procedure is unphysical, and that a single trajectory should be chosen instead. We illustrate our case with a climate model. While most of the current climate simulations use the ensemble average technique as merging procedure, this paper shows that this choice presents several drawbacks, including a serious underestimation of future climate extremes. It is also shown that a sensible choice of a single estimate from the ensemble solves this problem, partly overcoming the inherent sensitivity to initial conditions of those non-linear systems with a large number of degrees of freedom.
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"abstract": "Ensemble forecasting is a technique devised to palliate sensitivity to\ninitial conditions in nonlinear dynamical systems. The basic idea to avoid this\nsensitivity is to run the model many times under several slightly-different\ninitial conditions, merging the resulting forecast in a combined product. We\nargue that this blending procedure is unphysical, and that a single trajectory\nshould be chosen instead. We illustrate our case with a climate model. While\nmost of the current climate simulations use the ensemble average technique as\nmerging procedure, this paper shows that this choice presents several\ndrawbacks, including a serious underestimation of future climate extremes. It\nis also shown that a sensible choice of a single estimate from the ensemble\nsolves this problem, partly overcoming the inherent sensitivity to initial\nconditions of those non-linear systems with a large number of degrees of\nfreedom.",
"arxiv_id": "physics/0609005",
"authors": [
"F J Tapiador",
"R Verdejo"
],
"categories": [
"physics.ao-ph",
"physics.geo-ph"
],
"doi": "10.1029/2005GL024888",
"title": "Single Member Selection in Ensemble Forecasting",
"url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/physics/0609005"
},
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