dorsal/arxiv
View SchemaExtreme Value Statistics of the Total Energy in an Intermediate Complexity Model of the Mid-latitude Atmospheric Jet. Part I: Stationary case
| Authors | Mara Felici, Valerio Lucarini, Antonio Speranza, Renato Vitolo |
|---|---|
| Categories | |
| ArXiv ID | physics/0601081 |
| URL | https://arxiv.org/abs/physics/0601081 |
| DOI | 10.1175/JAS3895.1 |
Abstract
A baroclinic model for the atmospheric jet at middle-latitudes is used as a stochastic generator of time series of the total energy of the system. Statistical inference of extreme values is applied to yearly maxima sequences of the time series, in the rigorous setting provided by extreme value theory. In particular, the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) family of distributions is used here. Several physically realistic values of the parameter $T_E$, descriptive of the forced equator-to-pole temperature gradient and responsible for setting the average baroclinicity in the atmospheric model, are examined. The location and scale GEV parameters are found to have a piecewise smooth, monotonically increasing dependence on $T_E$. This is in agreement with the similar dependence on $T_E$ observed in the same system when other dynamically and physically relevant observables are considered. The GEV shape parameter also increases with $T_E$ but is always negative, as \textit{a priori} required by the boundedness of the total energy of the system. The sensitivity of the statistical inference process is studied with respect to the selection procedure of the maxima: the roles of both the length of maxima sequences and of the length of data blocks over which the maxima are computed are critically analyzed. Issues related to model sensitivity are also explored by varying the resolution of the system.
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"abstract": "A baroclinic model for the atmospheric jet at middle-latitudes is used as a\nstochastic generator of time series of the total energy of the system.\nStatistical inference of extreme values is applied to yearly maxima sequences\nof the time series, in the rigorous setting provided by extreme value theory.\nIn particular, the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) family of distributions is\nused here. Several physically realistic values of the parameter $T_E$,\ndescriptive of the forced equator-to-pole temperature gradient and responsible\nfor setting the average baroclinicity in the atmospheric model, are examined.\nThe location and scale GEV parameters are found to have a piecewise smooth,\nmonotonically increasing dependence on $T_E$. This is in agreement with the\nsimilar dependence on $T_E$ observed in the same system when other dynamically\nand physically relevant observables are considered. The GEV shape parameter\nalso increases with $T_E$ but is always negative, as \\textit{a priori} required\nby the boundedness of the total energy of the system. The sensitivity of the\nstatistical inference process is studied with respect to the selection\nprocedure of the maxima: the roles of both the length of maxima sequences and\nof the length of data blocks over which the maxima are computed are critically\nanalyzed. Issues related to model sensitivity are also explored by varying the\nresolution of the system.",
"arxiv_id": "physics/0601081",
"authors": [
"Mara Felici",
"Valerio Lucarini",
"Antonio Speranza",
"Renato Vitolo"
],
"categories": [
"physics.geo-ph",
"physics.data-an"
],
"doi": "10.1175/JAS3895.1",
"title": "Extreme Value Statistics of the Total Energy in an Intermediate Complexity Model of the Mid-latitude Atmospheric Jet. Part I: Stationary case",
"url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/physics/0601081"
},
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