{
  "annotation_id": "42f44cee-d99e-4720-a8dc-8d6c6607f7be",
  "date_created": "2026-03-02T18:00:43.064000Z",
  "date_modified": "2026-03-02T18:00:43.064000Z",
  "file_hash": "fc97eb7080a28aa9336ced690fda376f164c462d1ad59ba5b15713b3c4dc8f46",
  "private": false,
  "record": {
    "abstract": "In this paper we define the a posteriori probability W. This quantity is\nintroduced with the aim of suggesting a reliable interpretation of the actual\nthreat posed by a newly discovered Near Earth Asteroid (NEA), for which\nimpacting orbital solutions (now commonly known as Virtual Impactors or VIs)\ncan not be excluded on the basis of the available astrometric observations. The\nprobability W is strictly related to the so-called background impact\nprobability (that extrapolated through a statistical analysis from close\nencounters of the known NEA population) and to the annual frequency with which\nthe impact monitoring systems (currently NEODyS-CLOMON at University of Pisa\nand SENTRY at NASA-JPL) find VIs among newly discovered asteroids. Of W we also\nprovide a conservative estimate, which turns out to be of nearly the same order\nof the background impact probability. This eventually says to us what we\nalready know: the fact that nowadays monitoring systems frequently find VIs\namong newly discovered asteroids does not make NEAs more threatening than they\nhave ever been.",
    "arxiv_id": "physics/0212058",
    "authors": [
      "Germano D\u0027Abramo"
    ],
    "categories": [
      "physics.space-ph",
      "physics.gen-ph"
    ],
    "title": "A posteriori reading of Virtual Impactors impact probability",
    "url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/physics/0212058"
  },
  "schema_id": "dorsal/arxiv",
  "source": {
    "execution_id": "34d26e15-7a85-4773-b223-478e9e2247c6",
    "id": "arXiv Dataset IDs",
    "type": "Model",
    "variant": "snapshot-2026-03-01",
    "version": "0.1.0"
  },
  "user_id": 1000002
}