dorsal/arxiv
View SchemaPattern Informatics and Its Application for Optimal Forecasting of Large Earthquakes in Japan
| Authors | K. Z. Nanjo, J. B. Rundle, J. R. Holliday, D. L. Turcotte |
|---|---|
| Categories | |
| ArXiv ID | physics/0501121 |
| URL | https://arxiv.org/abs/physics/0501121 |
| DOI | 10.1007/s00024-006-0130-2 |
Abstract
Pattern informatics (PI) technique can be used to detect precursory seismic activation or quiescence and make earthquake forecast. Here we apply the PI method for optimal forecasting of large earthquakes in Japan, using the data catalogue maintained by the Japan Meteorological Agency. The PI method is tested to forecast large (magnitude m >= 5) earthquakes for the time period 1995-2004 in the Kobe region. Visual inspection and statistical testing show that the optimized PI method has forecasting skill, relative to the seismic intensity data often used as a standard null hypothesis. Moreover, we find a retrospective forecast that the 1995 Kobe earthquake (m = 7.2) falls in a seismically anomalous area. Another approach to test the forecasting algorithm is to create a future potential map for large (m >= 5) earthquake events. This is illustrated using the Kobe and Tokyo regions for the forecast period 2000-2009. Based on the resulting Kobe map we point out several forecasted areas: the epicentral area of the 1995 Kobe earthquake, the Wakayama area, the Mie area, and the Aichi area. The Tokyo forecasted map was created prior to the occurrence of the Oct. 23, 2004 Niigata earthquake (m = 6.8) and the principal aftershocks with m >= 5.0. We find that these events occurred in a forecasted area in the Tokyo map. The PI technique for regional seismicity observation substantiates an example showing considerable promise as an intermediate-term earthquake forecasting in Japan.
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"abstract": "Pattern informatics (PI) technique can be used to detect precursory seismic\nactivation or quiescence and make earthquake forecast. Here we apply the PI\nmethod for optimal forecasting of large earthquakes in Japan, using the data\ncatalogue maintained by the Japan Meteorological Agency. The PI method is\ntested to forecast large (magnitude m \u003e= 5) earthquakes for the time period\n1995-2004 in the Kobe region. Visual inspection and statistical testing show\nthat the optimized PI method has forecasting skill, relative to the seismic\nintensity data often used as a standard null hypothesis. Moreover, we find a\nretrospective forecast that the 1995 Kobe earthquake (m = 7.2) falls in a\nseismically anomalous area. Another approach to test the forecasting algorithm\nis to create a future potential map for large (m \u003e= 5) earthquake events. This\nis illustrated using the Kobe and Tokyo regions for the forecast period\n2000-2009. Based on the resulting Kobe map we point out several forecasted\nareas: the epicentral area of the 1995 Kobe earthquake, the Wakayama area, the\nMie area, and the Aichi area. The Tokyo forecasted map was created prior to the\noccurrence of the Oct. 23, 2004 Niigata earthquake (m = 6.8) and the principal\naftershocks with m \u003e= 5.0. We find that these events occurred in a forecasted\narea in the Tokyo map. The PI technique for regional seismicity observation\nsubstantiates an example showing considerable promise as an intermediate-term\nearthquake forecasting in Japan.",
"arxiv_id": "physics/0501121",
"authors": [
"K. Z. Nanjo",
"J. B. Rundle",
"J. R. Holliday",
"D. L. Turcotte"
],
"categories": [
"physics.geo-ph",
"physics.comp-ph"
],
"doi": "10.1007/s00024-006-0130-2",
"title": "Pattern Informatics and Its Application for Optimal Forecasting of Large Earthquakes in Japan",
"url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/physics/0501121"
},
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