dorsal/arxiv
View SchemaChange-point detection in the historical hurricane number time-series: why can't we detect change-points at US landfall?
| Authors | Kechi Nzerem, Stephen Jewson, Thomas Laepple |
|---|---|
| Categories | |
| ArXiv ID | physics/0611107 |
| URL | https://arxiv.org/abs/physics/0611107 |
Abstract
The time series of the number of hurricanes per year in the Atlantic basin shows a clear change of level between 1994 and 1995. The time series of the number of hurricanes that make landfall in the US, however, does not show the same obvious change of level. Prima-facie this seems rather surprising, given that the landfalling hurricanes are a subset of the basin hurricanes. We investigate whether it really should be considered surprising or whether there is a simple statistical explanation for the disappearance of this change-point at landfall.
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"abstract": "The time series of the number of hurricanes per year in the Atlantic basin\nshows a clear change of level between 1994 and 1995. The time series of the\nnumber of hurricanes that make landfall in the US, however, does not show the\nsame obvious change of level. Prima-facie this seems rather surprising, given\nthat the landfalling hurricanes are a subset of the basin hurricanes. We\ninvestigate whether it really should be considered surprising or whether there\nis a simple statistical explanation for the disappearance of this change-point\nat landfall.",
"arxiv_id": "physics/0611107",
"authors": [
"Kechi Nzerem",
"Stephen Jewson",
"Thomas Laepple"
],
"categories": [
"physics.ao-ph"
],
"title": "Change-point detection in the historical hurricane number time-series: why can\u0027t we detect change-points at US landfall?",
"url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/physics/0611107"
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