{
  "annotation_id": "3a094f55-138f-4d3a-9f40-7b3bff40d72b",
  "date_created": "2026-03-02T18:01:03.340000Z",
  "date_modified": "2026-03-02T18:01:03.340000Z",
  "file_hash": "1e0d2db182b4c719c1fd716b5c0eb8c77688ee757f1c6dfbb49749c9a21d6af3",
  "private": false,
  "record": {
    "abstract": "Annual levels of US landfalling hurricane activity averaged over the last 11\nyears (1995-2005) are higher than those averaged over the previous 95 years\n(1900-1994). How, then, should we best predict hurricane activity rates for\nnext year? Based on the assumption that the higher rates will continue we use\nan optimal combination of averages over the long and short time-periods to\nproduce a prediction that minimises MSE.",
    "arxiv_id": "physics/0512113",
    "authors": [
      "Stephen Jewson",
      "Christopher Casey",
      "Jeremy Penzer"
    ],
    "categories": [
      "physics.ao-ph"
    ],
    "title": "Year ahead prediction of US landfalling hurricane numbers: the optimal   combination of long and short baselines",
    "url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/physics/0512113"
  },
  "schema_id": "dorsal/arxiv",
  "source": {
    "execution_id": "4d581911-7886-4332-85c5-db952f7265b6",
    "id": "arXiv Dataset IDs",
    "type": "Model",
    "variant": "snapshot-2026-03-01",
    "version": "0.1.0"
  },
  "user_id": 1000002
}