dorsal/arxiv
View SchemaYear ahead prediction of US landfalling hurricane numbers: the optimal combination of long and short baselines
| Authors | Stephen Jewson, Christopher Casey, Jeremy Penzer |
|---|---|
| Categories | |
| ArXiv ID | physics/0512113 |
| URL | https://arxiv.org/abs/physics/0512113 |
Abstract
Annual levels of US landfalling hurricane activity averaged over the last 11 years (1995-2005) are higher than those averaged over the previous 95 years (1900-1994). How, then, should we best predict hurricane activity rates for next year? Based on the assumption that the higher rates will continue we use an optimal combination of averages over the long and short time-periods to produce a prediction that minimises MSE.
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"abstract": "Annual levels of US landfalling hurricane activity averaged over the last 11\nyears (1995-2005) are higher than those averaged over the previous 95 years\n(1900-1994). How, then, should we best predict hurricane activity rates for\nnext year? Based on the assumption that the higher rates will continue we use\nan optimal combination of averages over the long and short time-periods to\nproduce a prediction that minimises MSE.",
"arxiv_id": "physics/0512113",
"authors": [
"Stephen Jewson",
"Christopher Casey",
"Jeremy Penzer"
],
"categories": [
"physics.ao-ph"
],
"title": "Year ahead prediction of US landfalling hurricane numbers: the optimal combination of long and short baselines",
"url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/physics/0512113"
},
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