dorsal/arxiv
View SchemaRe-examination of log-periodicity observed in the seismic precursors of the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake
| Authors | Y. Huang, H. Saleur, D. Sornette |
|---|---|
| Categories | |
| ArXiv ID | physics/0007095 |
| URL | https://arxiv.org/abs/physics/0007095 |
| DOI | 10.1029/2000JB900308 |
| Journal | J. Geophys. Res., 105 (B12) pp 28111-28123, 2000 |
Abstract
Based on several empirical evidence, a series of papers has advocated the concept that seismicity prior to a large earthquake can be understood in terms of the statistical physics of a critical phase transition. In this model, the cumulative Benioff strain (BS) increases as a power-law time-to-failure before the final event. This power law reflects a kind of scale invariance with respect to the distance to the critical point. A few years ago, on the basis of a fit of the cumulative BS released prior to the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake, Sornette and Sammis [1995] proposed that this scale invariance could be partially broken into a discrete scale invariance (DSI). The observable consequence of DSI takes the form of log-periodic oscillations decorating the accelerating power law. They found that the quality of the fit and the predicted time of the event are significantly improved by the introduction of log-periodicity. Here, we present a battery of synthetic tests performed to quantify the statistical significance of this claim. We find that log-periodic oscillations with frequency and regularity similar to those of the Loma Prieta case are very likely to be generated by the interplay of the low pass filtering step due to the construction of cumulative functions together with the approximate power law acceleration. Thus, the single Loma Prieta case alone cannot support the initial claim and additional cases and further study are needed to increase the signal-to-noise ratio if any. The present study will be a useful methodological benchmark for future testing of additional events when the methodology and data to construct reliable Benioff strain function become available.
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"abstract": "Based on several empirical evidence, a series of papers has advocated the\nconcept that seismicity prior to a large earthquake can be understood in terms\nof the statistical physics of a critical phase transition. In this model, the\ncumulative Benioff strain (BS) increases as a power-law time-to-failure before\nthe final event. This power law reflects a kind of scale invariance with\nrespect to the distance to the critical point. A few years ago, on the basis of\na fit of the cumulative BS released prior to the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake,\nSornette and Sammis [1995] proposed that this scale invariance could be\npartially broken into a discrete scale invariance (DSI). The observable\nconsequence of DSI takes the form of log-periodic oscillations decorating the\naccelerating power law. They found that the quality of the fit and the\npredicted time of the event are significantly improved by the introduction of\nlog-periodicity. Here, we present a battery of synthetic tests performed to\nquantify the statistical significance of this claim. We find that log-periodic\noscillations with frequency and regularity similar to those of the Loma Prieta\ncase are very likely to be generated by the interplay of the low pass filtering\nstep due to the construction of cumulative functions together with the\napproximate power law acceleration. Thus, the single Loma Prieta case alone\ncannot support the initial claim and additional cases and further study are\nneeded to increase the signal-to-noise ratio if any. The present study will be\na useful methodological benchmark for future testing of additional events when\nthe methodology and data to construct reliable Benioff strain function become\navailable.",
"arxiv_id": "physics/0007095",
"authors": [
"Y. Huang",
"H. Saleur",
"D. Sornette"
],
"categories": [
"physics.geo-ph",
"physics.data-an"
],
"doi": "10.1029/2000JB900308",
"journal_ref": "J. Geophys. Res., 105 (B12) pp 28111-28123, 2000",
"title": "Re-examination of log-periodicity observed in the seismic precursors of the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake",
"url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/physics/0007095"
},
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