dorsal/arxiv
View SchemaThe occupation of a box as a toy model for the seismic cycle of a fault
| Authors | Alvaro Gonzalez, Javier B. Gomez, Amalio F. Pacheco |
|---|---|
| Categories | |
| ArXiv ID | physics/0502048 |
| URL | https://arxiv.org/abs/physics/0502048 |
| DOI | 10.1119/1.2013310 10.1119/1.2426356 |
| Journal | American Journal of Physics, Vol. 73, No. 10, October 2005, p. 946-952 [Erratum in Vol. 75, No. 3, March 2007, p 286] |
Abstract
We illustrate how a simple statistical model can describe the quasiperiodic occurrence of large earthquakes. The model idealizes the loading of elastic energy in a seismic fault by the stochastic filling of a box. The emptying of the box after it is full is analogous to the generation of a large earthquake in which the fault relaxes after having been loaded to its failure threshold. The duration of the filling process is analogous to the seismic cycle, the time interval between two successive large earthquakes in a particular fault. The simplicity of the model enables us to derive the statistical distribution of its seismic cycle. We use this distribution to fit the series of earthquakes with magnitude around 6 that occurred at the Parkfield segment of the San Andreas fault in California. Using this fit, we estimate the probability of the next large earthquake at Parkfield and devise a simple forecasting strategy.
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"abstract": "We illustrate how a simple statistical model can describe the quasiperiodic\noccurrence of large earthquakes. The model idealizes the loading of elastic\nenergy in a seismic fault by the stochastic filling of a box. The emptying of\nthe box after it is full is analogous to the generation of a large earthquake\nin which the fault relaxes after having been loaded to its failure threshold.\nThe duration of the filling process is analogous to the seismic cycle, the time\ninterval between two successive large earthquakes in a particular fault. The\nsimplicity of the model enables us to derive the statistical distribution of\nits seismic cycle. We use this distribution to fit the series of earthquakes\nwith magnitude around 6 that occurred at the Parkfield segment of the San\nAndreas fault in California. Using this fit, we estimate the probability of the\nnext large earthquake at Parkfield and devise a simple forecasting strategy.",
"arxiv_id": "physics/0502048",
"authors": [
"Alvaro Gonzalez",
"Javier B. Gomez",
"Amalio F. Pacheco"
],
"categories": [
"physics.geo-ph",
"physics.data-an"
],
"doi": "10.1119/1.2013310 10.1119/1.2426356",
"journal_ref": "American Journal of Physics, Vol. 73, No. 10, October 2005, p.\n 946-952 [Erratum in Vol. 75, No. 3, March 2007, p 286]",
"title": "The occupation of a box as a toy model for the seismic cycle of a fault",
"url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/physics/0502048"
},
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