dorsal/arxiv
View SchemaBlackouts, risk, and fat-tailed distributions
| Authors | Rafal Weron, Ingve Simonsen |
|---|---|
| Categories | |
| ArXiv ID | physics/0510077 |
| URL | https://arxiv.org/abs/physics/0510077 |
Abstract
We analyze a 19-year time series of North American electric power transmission system blackouts. Contrary to previously reported results we find a fatter than exponential decay in the distribution of inter-occurrence times and evidence of seasonal dependence in the number of events. Our findings question the use of self-organized criticality, and in particular the sandpile model, as a paradigm of blackout dynamics in power transmission systems. Hopefully, though, they will provide guidelines to more accurate models for evaluation of blackout risk.
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"abstract": "We analyze a 19-year time series of North American electric power\ntransmission system blackouts. Contrary to previously reported results we find\na fatter than exponential decay in the distribution of inter-occurrence times\nand evidence of seasonal dependence in the number of events. Our findings\nquestion the use of self-organized criticality, and in particular the sandpile\nmodel, as a paradigm of blackout dynamics in power transmission systems.\nHopefully, though, they will provide guidelines to more accurate models for\nevaluation of blackout risk.",
"arxiv_id": "physics/0510077",
"authors": [
"Rafal Weron",
"Ingve Simonsen"
],
"categories": [
"physics.soc-ph"
],
"title": "Blackouts, risk, and fat-tailed distributions",
"url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/physics/0510077"
},
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