dorsal/arxiv
View SchemaStatistical modelling of tropical cyclone tracks: modelling the autocorrelation in track shape
| Authors | Tim Hall, Stephen Jewson |
|---|---|
| Categories | |
| ArXiv ID | physics/0509024 |
| URL | https://arxiv.org/abs/physics/0509024 |
Abstract
We describe results from the third stage of a project to build a statistical model for hurricane tracks. In the first stage we modelled the unconditional mean track. In the second stage we modelled the unconditional variance of fluctuations around the mean. Now we address the question of how to model the autocorrelations in the standardised fluctuations. We perform a thorough diagnostic analysis of these fluctuations, and fit a type of AR(1) model. We then assess the goodness of fit of this model in a number of ways, including an out-of-sample comparison with a simpler model, an in-sample residual analysis, and a comparison of simulated tracks from the model with the observed tracks. Broadly speaking, the model captures the behaviour of observed hurricane tracks. In detail, however, there are a number of systematic errors.
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"date_created": "2026-03-02T18:01:00.689000Z",
"date_modified": "2026-03-02T18:01:00.689000Z",
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"abstract": "We describe results from the third stage of a project to build a statistical\nmodel for hurricane tracks. In the first stage we modelled the unconditional\nmean track. In the second stage we modelled the unconditional variance of\nfluctuations around the mean. Now we address the question of how to model the\nautocorrelations in the standardised fluctuations. We perform a thorough\ndiagnostic analysis of these fluctuations, and fit a type of AR(1) model. We\nthen assess the goodness of fit of this model in a number of ways, including an\nout-of-sample comparison with a simpler model, an in-sample residual analysis,\nand a comparison of simulated tracks from the model with the observed tracks.\nBroadly speaking, the model captures the behaviour of observed hurricane\ntracks. In detail, however, there are a number of systematic errors.",
"arxiv_id": "physics/0509024",
"authors": [
"Tim Hall",
"Stephen Jewson"
],
"categories": [
"physics.ao-ph"
],
"title": "Statistical modelling of tropical cyclone tracks: modelling the autocorrelation in track shape",
"url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/physics/0509024"
},
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"execution_id": "179f30b3-64a7-4352-8015-a1e5b1ab3c71",
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"type": "Model",
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