dorsal/arxiv
View SchemaGraph-Based Analysis of AI-Driven Labor Market Transitions: Evidence from 10,000 Egyptian Jobs and Policy Implications
| Authors | Ahmed Dawoud, Sondos Samir, Mahmoud Mohamed |
|---|---|
| Categories | |
| ArXiv ID | 2601.06129vv1 |
| URL | https://arxiv.org/abs/2601.06129 |
| License | http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/ |
Abstract
How many workers displaced by automation can realistically transition to safer jobs? We answer this using a validated knowledge graph of 9,978 Egyptian job postings, 19,766 skill activities, and 84,346 job-skill relationships (0.74% error rate). While 20.9% of jobs face high automation risk, we find that only 24.4% of at-risk workers have viable transition pathways--defined by $\geq$3 shared skills and $\geq$50% skill transfer. The remaining 75.6% face a structural mobility barrier requiring comprehensive reskilling, not incremental upskilling. Among 4,534 feasible transitions, process-oriented skills emerge as the highest-leverage intervention, appearing in 15.6% of pathways. These findings challenge optimistic narratives of seamless workforce adaptation and demonstrate that emerging economies require active pathway creation, not passive skill matching.
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"abstract": "How many workers displaced by automation can realistically transition to safer jobs? We answer this using a validated knowledge graph of 9,978 Egyptian job postings, 19,766 skill activities, and 84,346 job-skill relationships (0.74% error rate). While 20.9% of jobs face high automation risk, we find that only 24.4% of at-risk workers have viable transition pathways--defined by $\\geq$3 shared skills and $\\geq$50% skill transfer. The remaining 75.6% face a structural mobility barrier requiring comprehensive reskilling, not incremental upskilling. Among 4,534 feasible transitions, process-oriented skills emerge as the highest-leverage intervention, appearing in 15.6% of pathways. These findings challenge optimistic narratives of seamless workforce adaptation and demonstrate that emerging economies require active pathway creation, not passive skill matching.",
"arxiv_id": "2601.06129",
"authors": [
"Ahmed Dawoud",
"Sondos Samir",
"Mahmoud Mohamed"
],
"categories": [
"cs.CY",
"cs.AI"
],
"license": "http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/",
"title": "Graph-Based Analysis of AI-Driven Labor Market Transitions: Evidence from 10,000 Egyptian Jobs and Policy Implications",
"url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2601.06129",
"version": "v1"
},
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