dorsal/arxiv
View SchemaAnalysis of trends in human longevity by new model
| Authors | Byung Mook Weon |
|---|---|
| Categories | |
| ArXiv ID | q-bio/0402011 |
| URL | https://arxiv.org/abs/q-bio/0402011 |
Abstract
Trends in human longevity are puzzling, especially when considering the limits of human longevity. Partially, the conflicting assertions are based upon demographic evidence and the interpretation of survival and mortality curves using the Gompertz model and the Weibull model; these models are sometimes considered to be incomplete in describing the entire curves. In this paper a new model is proposed to take the place of the traditional models. We directly analysed the rectangularity (the parts of the curves being shaped like a rectangle) of survival curves for 17 countries and for 1876-2001 in Switzerland (it being one of the longest-lived countries) with a new model. This model is derived from the Weibull survival function and is simply described by two parameters, in which the shape parameter indicates 'rectangularity' and characteristic life indicates the duration for survival to be 'exp(-1)'. The shape parameter is essentially a function of age and it distinguishes humans from technical devices. We find that although characteristic life has increased up to the present time, the slope of the shape parameter for middle age has been saturated in recent decades and that the rectangularity above characteristic life has been suppressed, suggesting there are ultimate limits to human longevity. The new model and subsequent findings will contribute greatly to the interpretation and comprehension of our knowledge on the human ageing processes.
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"abstract": "Trends in human longevity are puzzling, especially when considering the\nlimits of human longevity. Partially, the conflicting assertions are based upon\ndemographic evidence and the interpretation of survival and mortality curves\nusing the Gompertz model and the Weibull model; these models are sometimes\nconsidered to be incomplete in describing the entire curves. In this paper a\nnew model is proposed to take the place of the traditional models. We directly\nanalysed the rectangularity (the parts of the curves being shaped like a\nrectangle) of survival curves for 17 countries and for 1876-2001 in Switzerland\n(it being one of the longest-lived countries) with a new model. This model is\nderived from the Weibull survival function and is simply described by two\nparameters, in which the shape parameter indicates \u0027rectangularity\u0027 and\ncharacteristic life indicates the duration for survival to be \u0027exp(-1)\u0027. The\nshape parameter is essentially a function of age and it distinguishes humans\nfrom technical devices. We find that although characteristic life has increased\nup to the present time, the slope of the shape parameter for middle age has\nbeen saturated in recent decades and that the rectangularity above\ncharacteristic life has been suppressed, suggesting there are ultimate limits\nto human longevity. The new model and subsequent findings will contribute\ngreatly to the interpretation and comprehension of our knowledge on the human\nageing processes.",
"arxiv_id": "q-bio/0402011",
"authors": [
"Byung Mook Weon"
],
"categories": [
"q-bio.PE"
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"title": "Analysis of trends in human longevity by new model",
"url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/q-bio/0402011"
},
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