dorsal/arxiv
View SchemaPredicting Baseball Home Run Records Using Exponential Frequency Distributions
| Authors | D. J. Kelley, J. R. Mureika, J. A. Phillips |
|---|---|
| Categories | |
| ArXiv ID | physics/0608228 |
| URL | https://arxiv.org/abs/physics/0608228 |
Abstract
A new model, which uses the frequency of individuals' annual home run totals, is employed to predict future home run totals and records in Major League Baseball. Complete home run frequency data from 1903--2005 is analyzed, resulting in annual exponential distributions whose changes can be a used as a measure of progression in the sport and serve as a basis against which record-setting performances can be compared. We show that there is an 80% chance that Barry Bonds' current 73 home run record will be broken in the next 10 years, despite the longevity of previous records held by baseball legends Babe Ruth and Roger Marris.
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"abstract": "A new model, which uses the frequency of individuals\u0027 annual home run totals,\nis employed to predict future home run totals and records in Major League\nBaseball. Complete home run frequency data from 1903--2005 is analyzed,\nresulting in annual exponential distributions whose changes can be a used as a\nmeasure of progression in the sport and serve as a basis against which\nrecord-setting performances can be compared. We show that there is an 80%\nchance that Barry Bonds\u0027 current 73 home run record will be broken in the next\n10 years, despite the longevity of previous records held by baseball legends\nBabe Ruth and Roger Marris.",
"arxiv_id": "physics/0608228",
"authors": [
"D. J. Kelley",
"J. R. Mureika",
"J. A. Phillips"
],
"categories": [
"physics.pop-ph"
],
"title": "Predicting Baseball Home Run Records Using Exponential Frequency Distributions",
"url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/physics/0608228"
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