dorsal/arxiv
View SchemaOn the changes in number and intensity of North Atlantic tropical cyclones
| Authors | William M. Briggs |
|---|---|
| Categories | |
| ArXiv ID | physics/0701345 |
| URL | https://arxiv.org/abs/physics/0701345 |
| DOI | 10.1175/2007JCLI1871.1 |
Abstract
Bayesian statistical models were developed for the number of tropical cyclones and the rate at which these cyclones became hurricanes in the North Atlantic. We find that, controlling for the cold tongue index and the North Atlantic oscillation index, there is high probability that the number of cyclones has increased in the past thirty years; but the rate at which these storms become hurricanes appears to be constant. We also investigate storm intensity by measuring the distribution of individual storm lifetime in days, storm track length, and Emanuel's power dissiptation index. We find little evidence that the distribution of individual storm intensity is changing through time. Any increase in cumulative yearly storm intensity and potential destructiveness, therefore, is due to the increasing number of storms and not due to any increase in the intensity of individual storms.
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"abstract": "Bayesian statistical models were developed for the number of tropical\ncyclones and the rate at which these cyclones became hurricanes in the North\nAtlantic. We find that, controlling for the cold tongue index and the North\nAtlantic oscillation index, there is high probability that the number of\ncyclones has increased in the past thirty years; but the rate at which these\nstorms become hurricanes appears to be constant. We also investigate storm\nintensity by measuring the distribution of individual storm lifetime in days,\nstorm track length, and Emanuel\u0027s power dissiptation index. We find little\nevidence that the distribution of individual storm intensity is changing\nthrough time. Any increase in cumulative yearly storm intensity and potential\ndestructiveness, therefore, is due to the increasing number of storms and not\ndue to any increase in the intensity of individual storms.",
"arxiv_id": "physics/0701345",
"authors": [
"William M. Briggs"
],
"categories": [
"physics.ao-ph",
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"doi": "10.1175/2007JCLI1871.1",
"title": "On the changes in number and intensity of North Atlantic tropical cyclones",
"url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/physics/0701345"
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