dorsal/arxiv
View SchemaCan we believe in high climate sensitivity?
| Authors | J. D. Annan, J. C. Hargreaves |
|---|---|
| Categories | |
| ArXiv ID | physics/0612094 |
| URL | https://arxiv.org/abs/physics/0612094 |
Abstract
The climate response to anthropogenic forcing has long been one of the dominant uncertainties in predicting future climate change (Houghton et al, 2001). Many observationally-based estimates of climate sensitivity (S) have been presented in recent years, with most of them assigning significant probability to extremely high sensitivity, such as P(S>6C)>5%. However, closer examination reveals that these estimates are based on a number of implausible implicit assumptions. We explain why these estimates cannot be considered credible and therefore have no place in the decision-making process. In fact, when basic probability theory is applied and reasonable assumptions are made, much greater confidence in a moderate value for S (~2.5C) is easily justified, with S very unlikely to be as high as 4.5C.
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"abstract": "The climate response to anthropogenic forcing has long been one of the\ndominant uncertainties in predicting future climate change (Houghton et al,\n2001). Many observationally-based estimates of climate sensitivity (S) have\nbeen presented in recent years, with most of them assigning significant\nprobability to extremely high sensitivity, such as P(S\u003e6C)\u003e5%.\n However, closer examination reveals that these estimates are based on a\nnumber of implausible implicit assumptions. We explain why these estimates\ncannot be considered credible and therefore have no place in the\ndecision-making process. In fact, when basic probability theory is applied and\nreasonable assumptions are made, much greater confidence in a moderate value\nfor S (~2.5C) is easily justified, with S very unlikely to be as high as 4.5C.",
"arxiv_id": "physics/0612094",
"authors": [
"J. D. Annan",
"J. C. Hargreaves"
],
"categories": [
"physics.ao-ph"
],
"title": "Can we believe in high climate sensitivity?",
"url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/physics/0612094"
},
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