dorsal/arxiv
View SchemaPrediction and predictability of global epidemics: the role of the airline transportation network
| Authors | Vittoria Colizza, Alain Barrat, Marc Barthelemy, Alessandro Vespignani |
|---|---|
| Categories | |
| ArXiv ID | q-bio/0507029 |
| URL | https://arxiv.org/abs/q-bio/0507029 |
| DOI | 10.1073/pnas.0510525103 |
| Journal | Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 103, 2015 (2006) |
Abstract
The systematic study of large-scale networks has unveiled the ubiquitous presence of connectivity patterns characterized by large scale heterogeneities and unbounded statistical fluctuations. These features affect dramatically the behavior of the diffusion processes occurring on networks, determining the ensuing statistical properties of their evolution pattern and dynamics. In this paper, we investigate the role of the large scale properties of the airline transportation network in determining the global evolution of emerging disease. We present a stochastic computational framework for the forecast of global epidemics that considers the complete world-wide air travel infrastructure complemented with census population data. We address two basic issues in global epidemic modeling: i) We study the role of the large scale properties of the airline transportation network in determining the global diffusion pattern of emerging diseases; ii) We evaluate the reliability of forecasts and outbreak scenarios with respect to the intrinsic stochasticity of disease transmission and traffic flows. In order to address these issues we define a set of novel quantitative measures able to characterize the level of heterogeneity and predictability of the epidemic pattern. These measures may be used for the analysis of containment policies and epidemic risk assessment.
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"abstract": "The systematic study of large-scale networks has unveiled the ubiquitous\npresence of connectivity patterns characterized by large scale heterogeneities\nand unbounded statistical fluctuations. These features affect dramatically the\nbehavior of the diffusion processes occurring on networks, determining the\nensuing statistical properties of their evolution pattern and dynamics. In this\npaper, we investigate the role of the large scale properties of the airline\ntransportation network in determining the global evolution of emerging disease.\nWe present a stochastic computational framework for the forecast of global\nepidemics that considers the complete world-wide air travel infrastructure\ncomplemented with census population data. We address two basic issues in global\nepidemic modeling: i) We study the role of the large scale properties of the\nairline transportation network in determining the global diffusion pattern of\nemerging diseases; ii) We evaluate the reliability of forecasts and outbreak\nscenarios with respect to the intrinsic stochasticity of disease transmission\nand traffic flows. In order to address these issues we define a set of novel\nquantitative measures able to characterize the level of heterogeneity and\npredictability of the epidemic pattern. These measures may be used for the\nanalysis of containment policies and epidemic risk assessment.",
"arxiv_id": "q-bio/0507029",
"authors": [
"Vittoria Colizza",
"Alain Barrat",
"Marc Barthelemy",
"Alessandro Vespignani"
],
"categories": [
"q-bio.OT",
"physics.bio-ph"
],
"doi": "10.1073/pnas.0510525103",
"journal_ref": "Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 103, 2015 (2006)",
"title": "Prediction and predictability of global epidemics: the role of the airline transportation network",
"url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/q-bio/0507029"
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