{
  "annotation_id": "10f541ed-89d6-4602-977f-8d58cc560a06",
  "date_created": "2026-03-02T18:00:53.452000Z",
  "date_modified": "2026-03-02T18:00:53.452000Z",
  "file_hash": "94af3697f71d01fe7babc0283383dd796a55becb8d378c577a113e05560a2768",
  "private": false,
  "record": {
    "abstract": "The occurrence of the September 28, 2004 Mw=6.0 mainshock at Parkfield,\nCalifornia, has significantly increased the mean and aperiodicity of the series\nof time intervals between mainshocks in this segment of the San Andreas fault.\nWe use five different statistical distributions as renewal models to fit this\nnew series and to estimate the time-dependent probability of the next Parkfield\nmainshock. Three of these distributions (lognormal, gamma and Weibull) are\nfrequently used in reliability and time-to-failure problems. The other two come\nfrom physically-based models of earthquake recurrence (the Brownian Passage\nTime Model and the Minimalist Model). The differences resulting from these five\nrenewal models are emphasized.",
    "arxiv_id": "physics/0411003",
    "authors": [
      "Alvaro Gonzalez",
      "Javier B. Gomez",
      "Amalio F. Pacheco"
    ],
    "categories": [
      "physics.geo-ph",
      "math.ST",
      "stat.TH"
    ],
    "title": "Updating seismic hazard at Parkfield",
    "url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/physics/0411003"
  },
  "schema_id": "dorsal/arxiv",
  "source": {
    "execution_id": "5021e2e1-55ea-46ff-8518-5e1b6925b0cb",
    "id": "arXiv Dataset IDs",
    "type": "Model",
    "variant": "snapshot-2026-03-01",
    "version": "0.1.0"
  },
  "user_id": 1000002
}