dorsal/arxiv
View SchemaReverse Detection of Short-Term Earthquake Precursors
| Authors | V. Keilis-Borok, P. Shebalin, A. Gabrielov, D. Turcotte |
|---|---|
| Categories | |
| ArXiv ID | physics/0312088 |
| URL | https://arxiv.org/abs/physics/0312088 |
| DOI | 10.1016/j.pepi.2004.02.010 |
| Journal | Physics of The Earth and Planetary Interiors, 145(1-4), pp.75-85, 2004 |
Abstract
We introduce a new approach to short-term earthquake prediction based on the concept of selforganization of seismically active fault networks. That approach is named "Reverse Detection of Precursors" (RDP), since it considers precursors in reverse order of their appearance. This makes it possible to detect precursors undetectable by direct analysis. Possible mechanisms underlying RDP are outlined. RDP is described with a concrete example: we consider as short-term precursors the newly introduced chains of earthquakes reflecting the rise of an earthquake correlation range; and detect (retrospectively) such chains a few months before two prominent Californian earthquakes - Landers, 1992, M = 7.6, and Hector Mine, 1999, M = 7.3, with one false alarm. Similar results (described elsewhere) are obtained by RDP for 21 more strong earthquakes in California (M >= 6.4), Japan (M >= 7.0) and the Eastern Mediterranean (M >= 6.5). Validation of the RDP approach requires, as always, prediction in advance for which this study sets up a base. We have the first case of advance prediction; it was reported before Tokachi-oki earthquake (near Hokkaido island, Japan), Sept. 25, 2003, M = 8.1. RDP has potentially important applications to other precursors and to prediction of other critical phenomena besides earthquakes. In particular, it might vindicate some short-term precursors, previously rejected as giving too many false alarms.
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"abstract": "We introduce a new approach to short-term earthquake prediction based on the\nconcept of selforganization of seismically active fault networks. That approach\nis named \"Reverse Detection of Precursors\" (RDP), since it considers precursors\nin reverse order of their appearance. This makes it possible to detect\nprecursors undetectable by direct analysis. Possible mechanisms underlying RDP\nare outlined. RDP is described with a concrete example: we consider as\nshort-term precursors the newly introduced chains of earthquakes reflecting the\nrise of an earthquake correlation range; and detect (retrospectively) such\nchains a few months before two prominent Californian earthquakes - Landers,\n1992, M = 7.6, and Hector Mine, 1999, M = 7.3, with one false alarm. Similar\nresults (described elsewhere) are obtained by RDP for 21 more strong\nearthquakes in California (M \u003e= 6.4), Japan (M \u003e= 7.0) and the Eastern\nMediterranean (M \u003e= 6.5). Validation of the RDP approach requires, as always,\nprediction in advance for which this study sets up a base. We have the first\ncase of advance prediction; it was reported before Tokachi-oki earthquake (near\nHokkaido island, Japan), Sept. 25, 2003, M = 8.1. RDP has potentially important\napplications to other precursors and to prediction of other critical phenomena\nbesides earthquakes. In particular, it might vindicate some short-term\nprecursors, previously rejected as giving too many false alarms.",
"arxiv_id": "physics/0312088",
"authors": [
"V. Keilis-Borok",
"P. Shebalin",
"A. Gabrielov",
"D. Turcotte"
],
"categories": [
"physics.geo-ph"
],
"doi": "10.1016/j.pepi.2004.02.010",
"journal_ref": "Physics of The Earth and Planetary Interiors, 145(1-4), pp.75-85,\n 2004",
"title": "Reverse Detection of Short-Term Earthquake Precursors",
"url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/physics/0312088"
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