dorsal/arxiv
View SchemaPhase transition in the globalization of trade
| Authors | M. Angeles Serrano |
|---|---|
| Categories | |
| ArXiv ID | physics/0611159 |
| URL | https://arxiv.org/abs/physics/0611159 |
| DOI | 10.1088/1742-5468/2007/01/L01002 |
| Journal | J. Stat. Mech. (2007) L01002 |
Abstract
Globalization processes interweave economic structures at a worldwide scale, trade playing a central role as one of the elemental channels of interaction among countries. Despite the significance of such phenomena, measuring economic globalization still remains an open problem. More quantitative treatments could improve the understanding of globalization at the same time that help a formal basis for comparative economic history. In this letter, we investigate the time evolution of the statistical properties of bilateral trade imbalances between countries in the trade system. We measure their cumulative probability distribution at different moments in time to discover a sudden transition circa 1960 from a regime where the distribution was always represented by a steady characteristic function to a new state where the distribution dilates as time goes on. This suggests that the rule that was governing the statistical behavior of bilateral trade imbalances until the 60's abruptly changed to a new form persistent in the last decades. In the new regime, the figures for the different years collapse into a universal master curve when rescaled by the corresponding global gross domestic product value. This coupling points to an increased interdependence of world economies and its onset corresponds in time with the starting of the last globalization wave.
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"abstract": "Globalization processes interweave economic structures at a worldwide scale,\ntrade playing a central role as one of the elemental channels of interaction\namong countries. Despite the significance of such phenomena, measuring economic\nglobalization still remains an open problem. More quantitative treatments could\nimprove the understanding of globalization at the same time that help a formal\nbasis for comparative economic history. In this letter, we investigate the time\nevolution of the statistical properties of bilateral trade imbalances between\ncountries in the trade system. We measure their cumulative probability\ndistribution at different moments in time to discover a sudden transition circa\n1960 from a regime where the distribution was always represented by a steady\ncharacteristic function to a new state where the distribution dilates as time\ngoes on. This suggests that the rule that was governing the statistical\nbehavior of bilateral trade imbalances until the 60\u0027s abruptly changed to a new\nform persistent in the last decades. In the new regime, the figures for the\ndifferent years collapse into a universal master curve when rescaled by the\ncorresponding global gross domestic product value. This coupling points to an\nincreased interdependence of world economies and its onset corresponds in time\nwith the starting of the last globalization wave.",
"arxiv_id": "physics/0611159",
"authors": [
"M. Angeles Serrano"
],
"categories": [
"physics.soc-ph",
"q-fin.ST"
],
"doi": "10.1088/1742-5468/2007/01/L01002",
"journal_ref": "J. Stat. Mech. (2007) L01002",
"title": "Phase transition in the globalization of trade",
"url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/physics/0611159"
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