dorsal/arxiv
View SchemaModeling and analysis of a novel two-strain dengue epidemics model considering secondary infections with increased mortality
| Authors | Burcu Gürbüz, Aytül Gökçe, Joseph Páez Chávez, Thomas Götz |
|---|---|
| Categories | |
| ArXiv ID | 2601.07403vv1 |
| URL | https://arxiv.org/abs/2601.07403 |
| License | http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
Abstract
In this study, we develop and analyze a deterministic two-strain host-vector model for dengue transmission that incorporates key immuno-epidemiological mechanisms, including temporary cross-immunity, antibody-dependent enhancement (ADE), disease-induced mortality during secondary infections, and explicit vector co-infection. The human population is divided into compartments for primary and secondary infections, while the mosquito population includes single- and co-infected classes. ADE is modeled through distinct primary ($\alpha$) and secondary ($\sigma$) transmission rates. Using the next-generation matrix method, we derive the basic reproduction number $R_0$ and establish the local stability of the disease-free equilibrium for $R_0 < 1$. Analytical results show that one-strain endemic equilibria lose stability under ADE conditions ($\sigma > \alpha$), allowing invasion by a heterologous strain. Employing center-manifold theory and numerical continuation (COCO), we demonstrate the occurrence of backward bifurcation, bistability between disease-free and endemic states, and Hopf-induced oscillations. Numerical simulations confirm transitions among disease-free, endemic, and periodic regimes as key parameters vary. The model highlights how ADE, waning cross-immunity, and vector co-infection interact to generate complex dengue dynamics and provides insights useful for designing effective control and vaccination strategies in dengue-endemic regions.
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"abstract": "In this study, we develop and analyze a deterministic two-strain host-vector model for dengue transmission that incorporates key immuno-epidemiological mechanisms, including temporary cross-immunity, antibody-dependent enhancement (ADE), disease-induced mortality during secondary infections, and explicit vector co-infection. The human population is divided into compartments for primary and secondary infections, while the mosquito population includes single- and co-infected classes. ADE is modeled through distinct primary ($\\alpha$) and secondary ($\\sigma$) transmission rates. Using the next-generation matrix method, we derive the basic reproduction number $R_0$ and establish the local stability of the disease-free equilibrium for $R_0 \u003c 1$. Analytical results show that one-strain endemic equilibria lose stability under ADE conditions ($\\sigma \u003e \\alpha$), allowing invasion by a heterologous strain. Employing center-manifold theory and numerical continuation (COCO), we demonstrate the occurrence of backward bifurcation, bistability between disease-free and endemic states, and Hopf-induced oscillations. Numerical simulations confirm transitions among disease-free, endemic, and periodic regimes as key parameters vary. The model highlights how ADE, waning cross-immunity, and vector co-infection interact to generate complex dengue dynamics and provides insights useful for designing effective control and vaccination strategies in dengue-endemic regions.",
"arxiv_id": "2601.07403",
"authors": [
"Burcu G\u00fcrb\u00fcz",
"Ayt\u00fcl G\u00f6k\u00e7e",
"Joseph P\u00e1ez Ch\u00e1vez",
"Thomas G\u00f6tz"
],
"categories": [
"math.DS",
"q-bio.PE"
],
"license": "http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
"title": "Modeling and analysis of a novel two-strain dengue epidemics model considering secondary infections with increased mortality",
"url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2601.07403",
"version": "v1"
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